In this paper we analyze the dynamics among past major pandemics, economic growth, inequality, and social unrest. We provide evidence that past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. We also find that higher social unrest, in turn, is associated with lower ourput and higher inequality, pointing to a vicious cycle. Our results suggest that without policy measures, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely increase inequality, trigger social unrest, and lower future output in the years to come.
The safeguards policy aims to mitigate the potential risks of misuse of resources, including Fund resources, and misreporting of program monetary data. The policy, introduced in 2000, is an integral part of the Fund’s financing policies and complements other safeguards, such as program design, conditionality, and access limits. Safeguards assessments of central banks of the borrowing member are required for almost all forms of Fund financing, and are followed by a period of monitoring for as long as Fund credit is outstanding.