Thitipat Chansriniyom, Mr. Natan P. Epstein, and Valeriu Nalban
The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Philippines highlights that the economic performance remains strong. The discussions focused on macroeconomic policies to keep the economy close to balance under the baseline outlook and risk scenarios; strategies for macroprudential policies to address risks from a potential renewed acceleration in credit growth; and policies and reforms to foster stronger and inclusive growth. Growth regained momentum in the second half of 2019 following a slowdown in the first half. The latter primarily reflected budgetary developments, with some temporary government underspending in the early part of the year. A decisive monetary policy tightening in response to the inflation spike and overheating risks in 2018 and weaker external demand also contributed. The structural reform momentum and infrastructure push remain strong. Gross domestic product growth is projected to rise further in the near term, underpinned by government spending acceleration and the recent monetary policy easing. Risks to the outlook are to the downside, reflecting risks to the global economy from increased trade tensions, shifts in global financial conditions, and natural disasters.
This Technical Assistance report focuses on Philippines’s monetary and financial statistics (MFS). In order to align the coverage of the other depository corporations survey to statistical standards, the mission recommended the inclusion of the money market unit investment trust funds in the survey. With the compilation of other financial corporation’s data, the Philippines is now able to produce intersectoral balance sheet approach (BSA). MFS with full coverage, together with quarterly international investment position and public debt statistics, are the building blocks for the BSA. The mission recommended a detailed action plan with the following priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving MFS quality and completeness. The experience by BSP compilers on data reporting by Securities and Exchange Commission supervised corporations pointed to a need to enhance the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) authority to collect data for statistical purposes, which has been addressed by BSP management. Details on the priority recommendations and the related actions/milestones can be found in the action plan under Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of The Philippines continues to perform well but is facing new challenges. Real GDP growth is projected to grow strongly in 2018 and 2019, supported by domestic demand. However, poverty and inequality challenges remain, inflation has risen, and external uncertainty has increased. The medium-term economic outlook remains favorable, but short-term risks have risen. Real GDP growth is projected at just under 7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected at above the 4 percent upper target bound in 2018 and stay in the upper half of the target band during 2019–2020. The current account deficit is projected to remain manageable, financed largely by foreign direct investment.
Sandile Hlatshwayo, Anne Oeking, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, David Corvino, Ananya Shukla, and Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it—and its effects—inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents’ assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts.