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Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies in participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of the Statistics Department of the IMF across a wide range of economies. The survey is conducted simultaneously by all participating economies; uses consistent definitions; and encourages best practices in collecting, compiling, and disseminating data on direct investment positions. The CDIS is thus an important tool in capturing world totals and the geographic distribution of direct investment positions, thereby contributing to important new understandings of the extent of globalization, and improving the overall quality of direct investment data worldwide. As of the writing of this updated Guide, more than 100 economies participate in the CDIS.

Mr. Alessandro Prati, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Mr. Stephen Tokarick, and Mr. Thierry Tressel

Abstract

Assessments of exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances for low-income countries are challenging because methodologies developed for advanced and emerging economies cannot be automatically applied to poorer nations. This paper uses a large database, unique in the set of indicators and number of countries it covers, to estimate the relationship in low-income countries between a set of fundamentals in the medium to long term and the real effective exchange rate, the current account, and the net external assets position.

Mr. F. Gulcin Ozkan and Ms. Filiz D Unsal
This paper develops a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis to a small open economy. We find that economies hit by a sudden stop arising from financial distress in the global economy are likely to face a more prolonged crisis than sudden stop episodes of domestic origin. Moreover, in contrast to the existing literature, our results suggest that the greater a country's trade integration with the rest of the world, the greater the response of its macroeconomic aggregates to a sudden stop of capital flows.
Mr. Christopher W. Crowe
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result’s implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation.
Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

Labor migration and remittances, which have increasingly become a part of the global landscape, have profound economic and social consequences. Moldova, a small low-income country where an estimated one-third of the economically active population has been working abroad, is an interesting illustration of this trend. Drawing on household survey data, this Special Issues paper explains why Moldovan workers go abroad and how their remittances are used. With this background, it provides insights into policy challenges of coping with, and maximizing benefits from, international labor mobility and the large inflows of remittances.

Ms. Wanda S Tseng and Mr. David Cowen

Abstract

China and India already rank among the world's largest economies, and each is moving rapidly toward the center stage of the global economy. In this process, different priorities have been placed on economic reforms over the past two decades?China taking a more outward strategy and India, until recently, a more inward one. Can they continue to rank among the fastest-expanding economies? This volume addresses that issue, highlighting what has worked and what more needs to be done to ensure sustained rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. Addressing the two countries recent experiences with growth and reform, this book provides important insights for other developing economies. For more information on how to purchase this title, please visit http://www.palgrave.com/economics/imf/index.asp.

Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Ms. Isabel Schnabel
We test for the existence of a moral hazard effect attributable to official crisis lending by analyzing the evolution of sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets before and after the Russian crisis. The nonbailout of Russia in August 1998 is interpreted as an event that decreased the perceived probability of future crisis lending to emerging markets. In the presence of moral hazard, such an event should raise not only the level of spreads, but also the sensitivity with which spreads reflect fundamentals as well as their cross-country dispersion. We find strong evidence for all three effects.
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta and Mr. George T. Abed

Abstract

This volume presents 18 IMF research studies on the causes and consequences of corruption, as well as how it can most effectively be combated to improve governance, increase economic growth, and reduce poverty. The authors examine how civil service wages affect corruption, the impact of natural resource availability on corruption, the impact of corruption on a country’s income distribution and incidence of poverty, and the effect of corruption on government expenditures on health and education.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Earlier this year, Abdoulaye Bio-Tchané took over as Director of the IMF’s African Department. Before joining the IMF staff, he was Benin’s Minister of Finance and Economy. He began his career as an economist in the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), where he rose to become Director of the Economic and Monetary Survey Department. He recently returned from a one-week trip with IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler to Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, and Tanzania. At the end of the trip, on May 3, Köhler announced that the IMF plans to establish five regional centers in Africa to strengthen locally based technical assistance and training.
Mr. Philip R. Lane and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
Recent years have witnessed a change in the composition of capital flows to developing countries, and FDI and equity flows have been playing an increasing role. In this paper we discuss the challenges for international macroeconomics that these developments pose and characterize stylized facts associated with the structure of external liabilities in developing countries, focusing in particular on FDI and equity stocks.