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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that during the past two years, macroeconomic developments in Nicaragua have been generally favorable. Real GDP grew by an average of 5¼ percent during 2011–2012, and the annual average inflation was 7¼ percent during the same period. Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook also remains broadly positive. Real GDP is expected to grow by 4¼ percent in 2013 and then stabilize at its potential level of 4 percent over the medium-term. Inflation is projected to remain at about 7 percent supported by the crawling-peg exchange rate system that has helped anchor inflation expectations.
International Monetary Fund
Nicaragua's economic performance in 2010 was satisfactory. Real GDP grew, supported by strong consumption and investment. Bank credit started recovering while the financial system remained liquid and profitable. Exchange-rate and monetary policy have contributed to macroeconomic stability. The authorities plan to improve public financial management and also to adopt a legal framework and remain committed to contain the macroeconomic risks from external aid flows. They also welcomed the sixth review and Financing Assurances under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.
Mr. Michael Keen, Mr. Paul K. Freeman, and Mr. Muthukumara Mani
Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on the poorest. It then reviews the key economic issues at stake, focusing in particular on the actual and prospective roles of, and interaction between, market instruments and public interventions in dealing with disaster risk. Key sources of market failure include the difficulty of risk spreading and, perhaps even more fundamental, the Samaritan's dilemma: the underinvestment in protective measures associated with the rational expectation that others will provide support if disaster occurs. Innovations addressing each of these are discussed.
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh and Mr. Steven T Phillips
Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.