Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Much of the work of the FSAP was conducted prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. The risk and vulnerability analysis integrates the original work with a quantification of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on bank solvency under two separate scenarios. The original ‘market shock’ scenario explores additional risks that feature less prominently in the COVID scenarios.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
While Norway’s institutional arrangement for macroprudential policy is uncommon, the authorities have shown strong willingness to act. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the sole macroprudential decision-maker in Norway, which is rare in international comparison. However, Norges Bank and the Finanstilsynet (FSA) play important advisory roles. In recent years, the authorities have taken substantive and wide-ranging macroprudential policy actions in response to growing systemic vulnerabilities—and these seem to have been effective in slowing down some of the riskier trends. The macroprudential policy toolkit is well stocked and actively used.
Ján Klacso, Eugen Tereanu, Marco Forletta, and Mr. Marco Gross
We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.
Mr. Marco Arena, Tingyun Chen, Mr. Seung M Choi, Ms. Nan Geng, Cheikh A. Gueye, Mr. Tonny Lybek, Mr. Evan Papageorgiou, and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global demand, trade tensions, and higher energy prices. Tighter financial conditions in vulnerable emerging market economies and maturing business cycles are also weighing on activity. Accordingly, growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That said, it is expected to remain above potential in most countries in the region.

Ms. Nan Geng
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the oil economy, outlook, and risk for Norway. Growth has continued to slow in the mainland economy. At the start of this year, oil prices had dropped by roughly 60 percent from their peak in June 2014 to less than US$40 a barrel. The labor market is feeling the sting of the oil price crash. The krone has weakened substantially along with the decline in oil prices. However, a modest recovery should take root next year. Mainland economy growth should be about 1 percent this year and pick up to close to 1¾ percent in 2017.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
A conservative minority government took office in October 2013, ending eight years of Labor party-led governments. No major policy shift has taken place so far, but the government’s economic policy platform emphasizes lower taxes, more infrastructure investment, greater private ownership, and measures to improve productivity and competitiveness. New challenges are emerging as oil-related investment is peaking and competitiveness concerns are becoming more pressing.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines 2013 Cluster Consultation—a Nordic Regional IMF staff report. Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden that form the Nordic region share a set of strong economic and social institutions and policies, with emphasis on education, high income equality, high employment, innovative and competitive business environment, etc. The IMF report suggests that strong national financial sector policies and regional cooperation would help mitigate common challenges and shared risks. Cooperative regional policies, such as introducing binding macroprudential minima and clear ex ante burden-sharing arrangements are expected to help limit the costs from any large bank failures.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norwegian economy has been performing well, with mainland GDP growing steadily. However, the continuing buildup of assets in the sovereign wealth fund and the increasing share of the mainland economy that is supplying goods and services to the oil sector are leading to competitiveness pressures in other industries exposed to international competition. The IMF staff report suggests that inflation is expected to be below target for some time and gradually rise to the target in the medium term.