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Ms. Alina Carare, Bertrand Candelon, Jean-Baptiste Hasse, and Jing Lu
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Ms. Ratna Sahay, Mr. Martin Cihak, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Ms. Diana B Ayala Pena, Ran Bi, Miss Yuan Gao, Ms. Annette J Kyobe, Lam Nguyen, Christian Saborowski, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
La crisis financiera mundial puso de relieve los peligros de los sistemas financieros que han crecido demasiado con demasiada rapidez. En este documento se reexamina la profundización financiera, centrándose el análisis en lo que pueden aprender los mercados emergentes de la experiencia de las economías avanzadas. En él se observa que los beneficios de la profundización financiera para el crecimiento y la estabilidad siguen siendo importantes en el caso de la mayoría de los mercados emergentes, pero hay límites en cuanto a su tamaño y velocidad. Cuando la profundización financiera sobrepasa la fortaleza del marco de supervisión, lleva a una excesiva asunción de riesgo e inestabilidad. Algo alentador es que las reformas regulatorias que promueven la profundidad del sector financiero son esencialmente las mismas que aquellas que contribuyen a una mayor estabilidad. Una mejor regulación —no necesariamente más regulación— determina entonces mayores posibilidades de lograr tanto desarrollo como estabilidad.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The article is an account of the assessment of implementation of IOSCO principles of securities and regulations in Malaysia. This assessment was conducted by the International Monetary fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The Securities Commission Malaysia has developed its supervisory network. The rules of the governing bodies such as issuers, auditors, collective investment schemes, and markets have widened their roles. The Executive Board conducted the assessment to ascertain whether the legal securities are able to meet the standards set by the IOSCO.
Mr. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and varies across time and countries, whereas contagion risks are more significant intra-regionally, and relatively stable over the past decade. An overall tradeoff exists between risk sharing and contagion, but the terms of tradeoffs vary across countries, depending on relative economic fluctuations and inflation differentials. Asia, therefore, can potentially enhance risk sharing without raising contagion risk.
Mr. Kenichi Ueda, Mr. Gianni De Nicolo, and Mr. Luc Laeven
This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution from 1994 through 2003 in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on aggregate and corporate growth and productivity. Our investigation yields three main findings. First, corporate governance quality in most countries has overall improved, although to varying degrees and with a few notable exceptions. Second, the data exhibit cross-country convergence in corporate governance quality with countries that score poorly initially catching up with countries with high corporate governance scores. Third, the impact of improvements in corporate governance quality on traditional measures of real economic activity-GDP growth, productivity growth, and the ratio of investment to GDP- is positive, significant, and quantitatively relevant, and the growth effect is particularly pronounced for industries that are most dependent on external finance.
Mr. Abdul d Abiad, Nienke Oomes, and Mr. Kenichi Ueda
The study documents evidence of a "quality effect" of financial liberalization on allocative efficiency, which is measured by the dispersion in Tobin's Q across firms. Based on a simple model, the authors predict that financial liberalization, by equalizing access to credit, reduces the variation in expected marginal returns. They test this prediction using a new financial liberalization index and firm-level data for five emerging markets: India, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. They find strong evidence that financial liberalization, rather than financial deepening, improves allocative efficiency.
Mr. Francis E. Warnock and Ms. Hali J Edison
We analyze a unique data set and uncover a remarkable result that casts a new light on the home bias phenomenon. The data are comprehensive, security-level holdings of emerging market equities by U.S. investors. We document, as expected, that at a point in time U.S. portfolios are tilted towards firms that are large, have fewer restrictions on foreign ownership, or are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange. The size of the cross-listing effect is striking. In contrast to the well-documented underweighting of foreign stocks, emerging market equities that are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange are incorporated into U.S. portfolios at full international capital asset pricing model (CAPM) weights. Our results suggest that information asymmetries play an important role in equity home bias and that the benefits of international risk sharing are limited to select firms.