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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund
This supplement reports on progress on various issues outlined in the staff’s Implementation Plan since its initial issuance on June 1, 2010. Many of the steps included in the Implementation Plan, particularly proposals in the Mandate papers still under consideration last June, have been taken forward. These initiatives are aimed at better integration of bilateral and multilateral surveillance, sharpening analysis of financial sector issues and macro-financial linkages, and better tailoring of the Fund’s lending toolkit to members’ needs and circumstances. Many further initiatives are included in the latest Work Program, which was discussed by the Board on November 22, 2010.
International Monetary Fund
This paper responds to the IMFC call to review, in light of the crisis, the Fund’s mandate over macroeconomic and financial sector policies bearing on global stability. The crisis exposed weaknesses in economic oversight—national, regional, and global—prior to the crisis, prompting major institutional innovations to uncover risks and meet large and diverse financing needs. Despite progress, it still needs to be asked if the mandate in the Fund’s Articles is up to the challenges ahead. The Board’s deliberations, which are far from complete, have prompted it to emphasize practical steps to deliver on the Fund’s broad stability mandate, with any need to amend the Articles reconsidered in light of experience. The effectiveness of these steps will also depend on quota and governance reform, as confidence in the Fund as an impartial overseer of global stability and lender of last resort rests on its legitimacy.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La recuperación para salir de la peor recesión en 60 años ha empezado, pero para sustentarla se precisa un equilibrio delicado de políticas a escala nacional e internacional. En el artículo central, el economista principal del FMI, Olivier Blanchard, afirma que la recuperación no será sencilla. La crisis ha dejado cicatrices profundas y duraderas en la oferta y la demanda. En este número de F&D abordamos la evolución de la crisis mundial y la situación futura. Analizamos temas como el repliegue del apoyo brindado durante la crisis, el crecimiento mundial tras la crisis, la reforma de la arquitectura financiera y el futuro de las monedas de reserva. Jeffrey Frankel reseña las últimas tendencias monetarias a nivel mundial y un equipo del Departamento de Estudios examina cómo los sistemas de alerta anticipada pueden ayudar a detectar problemas en el futuro. En "Gente del mundo de la economía" entrevistamos a Daniel Kahneman, ganador del premio Nobel por sus aportes en el campo de la economía del comportamiento, y en "Bajo la lupa" seguimos la evolución de la tasa de política monetaria del Banco de Inglaterra, que se encuentra en su nivel más bajo en 300 años. En "Vuelta a lo esencial" se presenta un abecé sobre política monetaria, y en "Un vistazo a las cifras" se examina el impacto de la crisis en el sistema bancario de Europa oriental.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La sortie de la récession la plus profonde des 60 dernières années est engagée. Mais pour entretenir la reprise, les pays devront bien doser leur action, aux plans national et international. Olivier Blanchard, Chef économiste du FMI, donne le ton en rappelant dans son article que le redressement ne sera pas aisé. La crise a laissé de profondes séquelles qui pèseront encore pendant longtemps sur l’offre et la demande. Cette édition de F&D se penche sur l’évolution à venir de la crise mondiale et sur son issue. Comment dénouer les politiques de relance? Quelle croissance après la crise? Comment reconstruire l’architecture financière? Quel est l’avenir des monnaies de réserves? Jeffrey Frankel examine ce qui est en vogue et ce qui ne l’est plus dans la finance internationale, et une équipe du Département des études analyse ce que l’on est en droit d’attendre des systèmes d’alerte précoce. Dans la rubrique «Paroles d’économistes», nous nous entretenons avec Daniel Kahneman, lauréat du Prix Nobel et pionnier de l’économie comportementale. La section «Pleins feux» trace, quant à elle, la chronologie du taux directeur de la Banque d’Angleterre qui a atteint son plus bas niveau en trois cents ans. « L’ABC de l’économie » rappelle les principes de la politique monétaire, tandis que « Gros plan » porte sur les effets de la crise pour le système bancaire de l'Est de l'Europe.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
New Q&A feature in this issue focuses on "Seven Questions about Recessions" (by Marco Terrones); IMF research summaries on financial stress (by Selim Elekdag) and on the real effects of the 2007–08 financial crisis (by Hui Tong); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during April–June 2009; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; listing of contents of Vol. 56 No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent external publications by IMF staff; and a feature on Staff Position Notes, the IMF’s new policy paper series, including a list of recent papers.
Mr. Adolfo Barajas and Mr. Armando Méndez Morales
Dollarization of liabilities (DL) has emerged as a key factor in explaining the vulnerability of emerging markets to financial and currency crises. "Usual suspects" of causing DL comprise "fatalistic" determinants such as a long history of unsound macroeconomic policies and development and institutional factors, aided by moral hazard opportunities related to government guarantees. This paper assesses empirically the relevance of these factors relative to alternative explanations. Based on a sample of Latin American countries, we find that ongoing central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market, relative market power of borrowers, and financial penetration are at least as important in explaining DL.