International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for members to consent to an increase in their quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas ("Fourteenth Review") through June 28, 2019.
The HIPC Initiative and MDRI are nearly complete, with 36 countries having already reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative. Chad, in April 2015, is the latest country to reach the completion point. Debt relief under the Initiative has alleviated debt burdens substantially in recipient countries and has enabled them to increase their poverty-reducing expenditure by over one and a half percentage points of GDP between 2001 and 2014.
Creditor participation in the HIPC Initiative has been strong amongst the multilateral and Paris Club creditors; however participation from other creditor groups still needs to be strengthened. The total cost of debt relief to creditors under the HIPC Initiative is currently estimated to be US$74.8 billion, while the costs to the four multilateral creditors providing relief under the MDRI is estimated at US$41.6 billion in end-2014 present value terms.
The overall fiscal position improved and the reduction in domestic arrears was triple the program target. The direct impact of the global financial crisis on Djibouti has been limited. The financial system has not been affected by the global crisis, and capital adequacy has improved slightly despite increased competition. GDP growth remained strong in 2008, and inflation decelerated during the fourth quarter. The risk of external debt distress remains high. Banks remain profitable and have not been affected by the global financial crisis.
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term IMF Engagement in Ethiopia. IMF involvement since 1992 helped underpin the authorities’ gradualist policies. Initially, IMF-supported programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and breaking with the legacy of central planning. Later programs emphasized structural reform to support sustainable high growth and poverty reduction. Although macroeconomic stability has been largely achieved, structural reform was gradual and piecemeal, especially under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. Many of the most immediate and distortionary policies of the centrally planned past have also been overhauled.
The paper examines fiscal sustainability issues for the case of Eritrea but has wider implications for addressing fiscal and debt sustainability. It begins with a formal definition and explanation of analytical sustainability indicators, followed by an assessment of the causes of fiscal deficits and their impact on the usual indicators of fiscal and external debt sustainability. The paper then goes beyond the usual analytical indicators by attempting to identify how and through which channels fiscal and other economic policies have affected the behavior of endogenous variables that in one way or another influence sustainability.
This paper assesses Ethiopia’s 2002 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Performance under the first annual PRGF-supported program was good, and the second annual program remains on track. All the quantitative and structural performance criteria and benchmarks for December 2001 and March 2002 were met, with the exception of the revised regulation for the provisioning by banks for nonperforming loans, which was adopted, but was not fully in line with international best practice, as had been envisaged.
This paper assesses Ethiopia’s Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Requests for Augmentation of Access and for Waiver of Performance Criterion, and Second Annual Program. Performance under the first annual PRGF-supported program was satisfactory in the context of Ethiopia’s steady progress toward peace with Eritrea. All quantitative and structural performance criteria through October 2001 were observed, with the exception of the adjusted performance criterion on the net domestic assets of the National Bank of Ethiopia, for which the authorities request a waiver.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.