The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has strengthened. Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in 2014, from 2.7 percent in 2013. Strong growth was attributed to double-digit growth in investment driven by activities in the Technological Industrial Development Zones and public infrastructure, as well as strong private consumption supported by robust credit growth and improving labor market conditions. GDP growth in 2015 is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent, with significant downside risks. A derailment of recent political agreement could negatively impact economic sentiment and growth.
Ms. Claudia H Dziobek, Mr. Alberto F Jimenez de Lucio, and Mr. James A Chan
This note addresses the following main issues: • Statistical definitions of government (Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001) • Institutional structure of government and public sector • What is a precise definition of government and why it is relevant • Potential pitfalls of lacking a precise definition of government • Definitions of government in IMF-supported programs • Applications for fiscal rules and other fiscal policy design