Mr. Emre Balibek, Mr. Tobias Haque, Diego Rivetti, and Ms. Miriam Tamene
This report provides guidance on using the Analytical Tool of the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS). The MTDS framework consists of a methodology, published as the ‘Guidance Note for Developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy’, and an associated analytical tool (AT) that can be used to assess the cost-risk trade-offs of alternative strategies to help identify the preferred strategy. The MTDS framework supported by the AT quantitative analysis helps to determine the financing strategy. The chosen debt management strategy sets out the financing composition path to meet the debt management objective(s). The profile of future interest payments and the amortizations of new debt are driven by the debt management strategy. The MTDS AT is based on annual cash flow. Although this assumption is enough for analyzing alternative debt management strategies, in some cases, particularly for countries that are heavily dependent on short-term securities with maturities of less than a year, it would be helpful to work with cash flows with higher frequency.
Sophia Chen, Mrs. Paola Ganum, and Mr. Pau Rabanal
e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015. We show that credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance, in particular when credit growth is unusually high or low. However, the relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak. These results hold for different country groups, including advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income countries. Combining credit growth with other variables such as house prices and the output gap helps to understand real sector outcomes. But including the financial account balance does not make a difference.
Ms. Suzanne Flynn, Delphine Moretti, and Joe Cavanagh
This technical note and manual (TNM) explains what accrual accounting means for the public sector and discusses current trends in moving from cash to accrual accounting. It outlines factors governments should consider in preparing for the move and sequencing of the transition. The note recognizes that governments considering accounting reforms will have different starting points across the public sector, different objectives, and varying coverage of the existing financial statements, it therefore recommends that governments consider each of these, and the materiality of stocks, flows and entities outside of government accounts when planning reforms and design the sequencing and stages involved accordingly. Building on international experiences, the note proposes four possible phases for progressively increasing the financial operations reported in the balance sheet and operating statement, with the ultimate aim of including all institutional units under the effective control of government in fiscal reports.
This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: Interaction between treasury cash management and monetary policy operations within the wider context of the respective economic responsibilities of the ministry of finance and the central bank; Institutional arrangements for an effective relationship between the treasury and the central bank; Contractual arrangements between the treasury and the central bank for the provision of banking and other services. This document will be particularly relevant to developing countries that are reforming cash management operations or contemplating more active cash management; or where there are operational policy differences between the treasury and the central bank.
This technical note and manual addresses the following main issues: 1. Discusses the problems of fragmented government banking arrangements and how a treasury single account (TSA) could address them. 2. Explains the concept of a TSA and describes its features. 3. Discusses the design issues that need to be considered in setting up a TSA system. 4. Discusses the preconditions and key sequencing and implementation issues that need to be addressed in establishing a TSA.
This technical note describes the interaction of government cash management with other financial policies. The note offers guidance on policy, institutional, and practical issues for governments looking to develop a more sophisticated cash management function, specifically to move toward more active cash management. This involves financial market intervention by the government cash manager, with the aim of smoothing the projected short-term profile of the government’s net cash balances. The note is particularly relevant to emerging market countries where there are already functioning, if not necessarily well-developed, domestic money and bond markets.
This technical note describes the objectives of modern cash management. The note highlights that cash management is necessary because there are mismatches between the timing of payments and the availability of cash. All definitions of cash management emphasize the time value of government money. This note elaborates good cash management practices in developed countries, and the main features of the framework for short-term cash planning. Challenges for improving cash management in low- and middle-income countries are also discussed.