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International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix provide background information and analytical support for key policy issues discussed in the 2004 Article IV Consultation discussions with Mauritius. The impact of the erosion of trade preferences on exports, growth, and employment is assessed under two scenarios—a moderate and an extreme scenario. To quantify the adverse impact of trade liberalization, the paper estimates various elasticities of GDP growth to exports, and unemployment to growth. The paper also analyzes the labor market institutions and low-skilled employment in Mauritius.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

This paper contains further work by the Fund staff on trade issues and developments following the pattern of the surveys prepared in 1978 and 1981, mainly focusing on commercial policies of the major trading nations. It also includes a discussion of agricultural protection and issues relating to international trade in agricultural products.

George B. Baldwin

Although business men in developing countries may justifiably feel that they are breaking new ground in advancing its industrialization, as a group they follow a predictable pattern of activity.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

This paper contains further work by the Fund staff on trade issues and developments following the pattern of the surveys prepared in 1978 and 1981,1 mainly focusing on commercial policies of the major trading nations. It also includes a discussion of agricultural protection and issues relating to international trade in agricultural products.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

Since 1973, the growth of international trade has been slower and more uneven than in the previous two decades, and there have been significant shifts in the structure of trade (Table 1). During 1963–73, world exports (in volume terms) increased every year, at an average rate of 8½ per cent. During 1974–81, there was a striking variation in annual growth rates, ranging from a decline of 3 per cent to an increase of 11 per cent; on average, exports grew by 3½ per cent annually. In 1980–81, export growth was negligible (0.5 per cent a year). On the assumption that there will be no increase in protectionism, the April 1982 World Economic Outlook by the Fund staff projected a modest increase of 2 per cent in world trade in 1982 and an average growth of between 4 and 5 per cent annually in the subsequent years up to 1986. Thus, it is evident that the dynamism that was characteristic of international trade in the 1960s and early 1970s is unlikely to be restored under the central assumption of unchanged policies.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

This section reviews the principal trends in the evolution of international trade in manufactures, discusses briefly some estimates of levels of protection, and describes recent trade actions and pressures for protection in selected sectors in the major trading nations. The coverage of countries and sectors is selective. Certain reported administrative or ad hoc actions in some countries in recent months, such as delays in customs clearance or administrative tightening of import licensing practices, are difficult to verify and are not covered. In addition, the quality of information on some types of restrictions such as “voluntary” export restraint arrangements varies between countries or sectors. Accordingly, the information presented in this section is intended to be illustrative of recent changes in the commercial policy stance of major countries. Owing to their importance in world trade, the emphasis is on actions in the United States, the European Community, and Japan. This has been supplemented by information on trade actions of other major trading nations.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

This section discusses, somewhat extensively, the principal trends in international agricultural trade, agricultural policy objectives and instruments employed in major trading nations, and principal trade actions and developments affecting agricultural commodities. It concludes with a discussion on some consequences of agricultural protection. The discussion covers temperate zone and competing zone agricultural products in which OECD countries dominate. The survey focuses on the European Community, the United States, and Japan because of their importance in agricultural trade—the first two as exporters and importers, and Japan as an importer. Australia and New Zealand, both important suppliers, and Canada, a major exporter and importer, are also covered. The focus of this section is on the implications of agricultural policies for world trade and efficient resource allocation; the authors are inevitably not in a position to assess the extent to which these policies have contributed to fulfillment of other domestic social goals.

Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

Abstract

With the conclusion of the Tokyo Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) in 1979, tariff reductions and a wide-ranging set of new rules governing international trade came into effect. This section highlights these and other principal developments in 1981 and early 1982 in the evolution of the international trading system.