Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

  • Timor-Leste, Democratic Republic of x
  • National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock x
Clear All
Ali Alichi, Mr. Ippei Shibata, and Kadir Tanyeri
Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Timor-Leste’s non-oil real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated at 5.5 percent, supported by a near doubling of government capital spending, albeit with large import leakages. Real total GDP declined by 7.9 percent in 2016, owing to a sharp fall in oil production. The overall fiscal deficit widened to 30.8 percent of GDP in 2016. Non-oil real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 3 percent in 2017, owing to lower government expenditure and the slowdown of activity owing to the delayed formation of the new government after the parliamentary elections in July. Inflationary pressures remain low, albeit with a return to positive territory with rising global food and fuel prices.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, and risks in Timor-Leste. Growth has moderated while inflation has fallen sharply. Owing to a sharp fall in oil revenues and large development needs, Timor-Leste is facing difficult policy challenges. According to industry estimates, unless new oil reserves are developed, oil production is expected to decline further and cease by 2023. Prioritization of government expenditures to facilitate high-return infrastructure investments is key in tandem with structural reforms that catalyze nonoil private sector growth. The 2016 budget outlined a significant scaling up of the public investment in 2017-19, which will strain fiscal sustainability.

International Monetary Fund

The Timorese economy has improved owing to high oil-financed public spending and a rebound in agriculture, non-oil growth. Despite high bank deposit growth, private sector credit has remained stagnant. The medium-term outlook for growth is positive. Timor-Leste’s key challenge remains to use its petroleum wealth wisely to build a strong non-oil economy and raise living standards. Improvements in financial management and budget execution will be important. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms and efforts to build labor skills would improve competitiveness in non-oil industries and services.

International Monetary Fund
The Timorese economy has improved owing to high oil-financed public spending and a rebound in agriculture, non-oil growth. Despite high bank deposit growth, private sector credit has remained stagnant. The medium-term outlook for growth is positive. Timor-Leste’s key challenge remains to use its petroleum wealth wisely to build a strong non-oil economy and raise living standards. Improvements in financial management and budget execution will be important. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms and efforts to build labor skills would improve competitiveness in non-oil industries and services.
International Monetary Fund

The Timorese economy has improved owing to high oil-financed public spending and a rebound in agriculture, non-oil growth. Despite high bank deposit growth, private sector credit has remained stagnant. The medium-term outlook for growth is positive. Timor-Leste’s key challenge remains to use its petroleum wealth wisely to build a strong non-oil economy and raise living standards. Improvements in financial management and budget execution will be important. Productivity-enhancing structural reforms and efforts to build labor skills would improve competitiveness in non-oil industries and services.

International Monetary Fund

This 2009 Article IV Consultation on Timor-Leste highlights that the Timorese economy has posted high economic growth over the past two years, driven by rapid increases in government spending and a recovery in agriculture from a 2007 drought. Central government spending rose sharply in 2008, reflecting efforts to address pressing development needs and secure social cohesion. Executive Directors have welcomed the recently announced moderation in government spending. Directors have also supported the prudent approach toward widening the fund’s investment portfolio.

International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation on Timor-Leste highlights that the Timorese economy has posted high economic growth over the past two years, driven by rapid increases in government spending and a recovery in agriculture from a 2007 drought. Central government spending rose sharply in 2008, reflecting efforts to address pressing development needs and secure social cohesion. Executive Directors have welcomed the recently announced moderation in government spending. Directors have also supported the prudent approach toward widening the fund’s investment portfolio.