The COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 coup d’état have disrupted more than half a decade of strong economic performance, during which growth averaged 5 percent.1 Growth is projected to decline from 5 percent to -2 percent in 2020 both on account of the pandemic (reflecting a slowdown in external demand, travel, and FDI, as well as the impact of uncertainty and reduced mobility on domestic demand) and of post-coup disruptions in trade, transport, economic and financial flows following the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Inflation accelerated slightly in recent months but is expected to remain below 2 percent, while the current account deficit is projected to narrow due to higher gold prices (main export) and lower oil prices (main import). Risks around the outlook are exceptionally high in light of the uncertainty surrounding the political transition, the impact of the sanctions on trade and overall activity, and continued deterioration in the security situation. Weak social safety nets amid high informality, food insecurity and a fragile healthcare system exacerbate challenges.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Finland’s exports have suffered owing to the declines of Nokia and the paper industry, compounded by weak external demand, especially from the euro area and Russia. The current account and fiscal balances have deteriorated, with the 2014 fiscal deficit breaching the Stability and Growth Pact’s 3 percent of GDP criterion. A modest recovery is projected to begin in 2015 and gradually strengthen in 2016. However, in absence of further reforms, growth is likely to remain much lower than pre-crisis. Weaker-than-expected growth in key trade partners would be a drag on exports, and spillovers from an external financial shock would create tighter financial conditions, with negative effects on output.
Este folleto (que actualiza las Directrices de 1995 para el ajuste fiscal) presenta el enfoque del FMI con respecto al ajuste fiscal, y se centra en la importancia de la solidez de las finanzas públicas para promover la estabilidad macroeconómica y el crecimiento. Está estructurado en torno a cinco preguntas prácticas: cuándo realizar un ajuste, cómo evaluar la situación fiscal, cuáles son los factores que determinan el éxito del ajuste, cómo realizar el ajuste y qué instituciones facilitan el ajuste. Aborda temas tales como las políticas tributarias, la sostenibilidad de la deuda, las leyes de responsabilidad fiscal y la transparencia.
Cette brochure (qui actualise la brochure initiale de 1995, « Ajustement budgétaire : principes directeurs ») présente la démarche du FMI en matière d’ajustement budgétaire et le rôle qu’une position saine des finances publiques joue dans la recherche de la stabilité macroéconomique et de la croissance. Elle aborde des thèmes tels que la politique fiscale, la viabilité de la dette, la réglementation de la responsabilité budgétaire et la transparence. Elle est structurée autour de cinq questions : quand faut-il mettre en œuvre l’ajustement budgétaire ? Comment faut-il évaluer la position budgétaire ? Comment assurer la réussite de l’ajustement budgétaire ? Comment mettre en œuvre l’ajustement budgétaire? Comment les institutions peuvent-elles appuyer l’ajustement budgétaire ?
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
The staff report for the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) on the Republic of Croatia highlights fiscal policy and monetary and financial sector policies. The policy implementation under this SBA has yielded sizable fiscal consolidation and advances in structural reforms, despite some snags. The authorities have taken a number of measures to discourage external borrowing, address foreign currency-related credit risk, and strengthen supervision. The health reform aims at improving the financial situation in the sector and rationalizing public spending on health.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom reviews the IMF's Global Economy Model, which incorporates energy to examine the impact of rising energy prices on the United Kingdom. The model incorporates energy as a final consumption good as well as a primary input in the production process. With energy entering the production process, increases in energy costs affect overall aggregate supply capacity as firms reduce output and factor-utilization rates given the real increase in their cost structures.
The government’s strong monetary and fiscal policy framework, as well as the structural reforms introduced, have enabled the Canadian economy to respond flexibly to recent shocks and laid a solid foundation for recovery. Macroeconomic policies should remain supportive, with fiscal policy continuing to focus on sustained debt reduction and structural reforms geared toward boosting productivity. Canada’s commitment to exchange rate flexibility has been helpful in facilitating the adjustment of global macroeconomic imbalances. Ensuring that regulatory and other policies support productivity, growth remains a key long-term challenge.
This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that Canada’s strong policy framework has brought impressive economic results, and the Canadian economy has proven exceptionally resilient in the face of the recent global downturn. Economic activity slowed relatively modestly in 2001, with only one quarter of output decline recorded, and growth recovered strongly thereafter, averaging 4 percent over the subsequent four quarters. Household consumption and residential investment have remained robust. Household and business demand was supported by sustained productivity growth, rapid growth of employment and labor incomes, and gains in real estate prices.
The phenomenon of substantial peacetime budget deficits over the past20 years has been traced to the burden of entitlements, a slowdown ineconomic productivity, and demographic and macroeconomic shifts in theindustrial countries. Though smaller and structurally different, deficitsin developing countries have also become worrisome. Most economists agreethat measures to reduce government spending are imperative, particularlythrough restructuring entitlement programs.