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Karim Barhoumi, Ha Vu, Shirin Nikaein Towfighian, and Mr. Rodolfo Maino
There is significant room to improve public investment efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Investment in sub-Saharan African countries is lagging vis-à-vis peers such as emerging and developing Asia as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region’s infrastructure is perceived as being of relatively low quality. Improving the efficiency of sizable investment programs in the region could contribute to more solid economic growth and help achieve desired social priorities and development goals. Results point to some variability in public investment efficiency within the region. Comparing efficiency scores across country groups suggests that investment efficiency in sub-Saharan African oil exporters tends to be lower than in sub-Saharan African non-resource-intensive countries. Additionally, countries in East African Community (EAC) perform better than those in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Stronger institutions could foster more efficient public investment. The regression results in this paper show a positive correlation between public investment efficiency and the quality of institutions, suggesting that devel-oping stronger institutions in sub-Saharan Africa could lead to a significant improvement in investment efficiency. This is particularly relevant for coun-tries with weak institutional quality, where governments may use capital spending as a vehicle for rent-seeking, leading to inefficient spending. Given the current drive for scaling up investment in sub-Saharan Africa, the task of improving institutions quickly should become a priority.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report presents an evaluation of the public investment management (PIM) in Liberia. The overall performance of PIM in Liberia is in line with that of comparable low-income countries, and reflects the country’s post-conflict status, which severely damaged its infrastructure, and heavy dependence on external loans and grants. About 80 percent of Liberia’s public investment is financed through external sources. grants and concessional loans, and executed outside the budget. These sources of funding are not within government’s control and have contributed to the volatility of public investment in recent years.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Liberia’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Modification of Performance Criteria. Real GDP grew at 8.7 percent in 2013 and is projected to decline to 5.9 percent in 2014 as mining production decelerates. Most end-December 2013 PCs and indicative targets (ITs) were met, except for the PC on government revenue and the IT on external borrowing. Four out of five structural benchmarks were met on time. The IMF staff supports the completion of the third ECF review.
Mr. John W Clark JR and Mr. Manuel Rosales Torres
Liberia is facing large infrastructure gaps and developmental needs that constrain the country’s growth potential. The government has set an ambitious agenda to transform the economy and to reach middle-income country status by 2030 by scaling up investment in infrastructure and human capital. Fiscal space remains constrained by rigidities in current spending and the government will need to resort to borrowing to close some of the gaps. This paper presents an estimate of the nexus between public investment, financing, and growth in Liberia using an inter-temporal macroeconomic model. The model has been calibrated as much as possible to Liberian economic data and assumes that public investment has a high economic and social rate of return and is highly complementary toward private sector investment. The objective of the paper is to contribute to the debate on how fast public investment should be scaled up to address the country’s developmental needs. The paper also highlights the trade-offs and potential risks associated with different financing options and the required changes in fiscal policy to ensure macroeconomic stability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2012 Article IV Consultation with Liberia discusses the economic developments and policies of the country. Liberia recorded strong macroeconomic performance under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, but poverty continued to be pervasive. The short- to medium-term outlook has remained favorable, although subject to considerable risks. Following resumption of iron ore exports in 2011, real GDP growth is estimated at 9 percent in 2012, supported by strong growth in the mining sector and expansionary fiscal policy for infrastructure investment. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a successor arrangement under the ECF.
International Monetary Fund
The Executive Board of the IMF has completed the seventh review of Liberia’s economic program under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The completion of the review enables the disbursement of SDR 4.44 million, which will bring total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 243.5 million. The ECF arrangement for Liberia was initially approved in March 2008, for an amount of SDR 239.02 million. In June 2010, Liberia reached the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative Completion Point and received debt relief equivalent to more than 90 percent of debt outstanding.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila and Ms. Misa Takebe
Despite the rapid increase in FDI flows to LICs, there have been relatively few studies that have specifically examined these flows. This paper attempts to partially fill the void by throwing light on one particularly dynamic aspect of global FDI-flows from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs). The paper finds that official data sources undoubtedly underestimate the volume and scope of FDI flows as many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) do not always register their investment. As a result, while it is difficult to estimate accurately the growth impact of BRIC FDI, there is case study evidence that it is increasingly significant. Second, while initial investment, mostly by state-owned companies, has often been destined for natural resource industries, over time, investment has been spreading to agriculture, manufacturing, and service industries (e.g., telecommunications). Third, FDI from BRICs flows into many non resource-rich countries in LICs and plays a significant role in growth in those countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Réunions de printemps FMI–Banque mondiale, Soutenir la croissance et freiner la hausse des prix alimentaires, Selon le FMI, la crise du crédit s’étend, Perspectives mondiales, Communiqué du CMFI, Quotes-parts et représentation, FMI : nouveau modèle de revenu, Fonds souverains : pratiques optimales, Gérer les cycles de l’immobilier, Boom des produits de base, Perspectives africaines, Perspectives asiatiques, Perspectives latino-américaines, L’actualité en bref
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Reuniones de Primavera del FMI y el Banco Mundial, Los ministros resuelven contrarrestar el alza de los alimentos, La crisis crediticia se extiende, Perspectivas económicas, Comunicado del CMFI, Cuotas y representación, Nuevo modelo de ingresos del FMI, Prácticas óptimas de los fondos soberanos, Ciclos del sector de la vivienda, Auge de precios de las materias primas, Perspectivas económicas de África, Perspectivas económicas de Asia, Perspectivas económicas de América Latina, Notas breves
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, Ministers Resolve to Counter Slowdown, Combat Food Hikes, Credit Crisis is Broadening, World Economic Outlook, IMFC Communiqué, Quota and Voice Reform, IMF's New Income Model, Best Practices for Sovereign Funds, Managing Housing Sector Cycles, Commodity Price Boom, African Economic Outlook, Asian Economic Outlook, LATAM Economic Outlook, News Briefs.