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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Comorian economy’s performance improved in 2017. Growth is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017, half a percentage point higher than in the previous year. A combination of factors contributed to this outcome, notably an improved electricity situation relative to 2016, increased exports, and stronger remittances flows. However, the economy was held back by a perceived deterioration in the business climate and tensions in the financial sector. Inflation remained moderate. The near-term outlook remains challenging in the absence of further reform efforts. The authorities’ reform agenda and investment plans, undertaken in the context of their revised strategic development plan will help raise potential growth rates going.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper examines Comoros’ weak domestic revenue and volatile windfall revenues. Weak revenue mobilization and the reliance on volatile one-off windfall gains remains a significant development challenge for Comoros. Weak revenue mobilization not only makes it more difficult for Comoros to finance its significant development needs, but also increases the budget’s reliance on uncertain and volatile one-off revenue streams. Sustainably improving revenue mobilization based on realistic and attainable budgetary targets, is key for financing Comoros’ medium to long-term development goals without endangering debt sustainability. Broadening the tax base and thereby increasing the tax ratio to develop more predictable budgetary financing sources will aid execution of Comoros’ ambitious investment program that underpins the country’s development strategy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the main fiscal trends of the Comorian economy over 2005–15. It highlights continued difficulties in the fiscal performance of and the outlook for Comoros as a result of systemic challenges in revenue administration and public financial management. In particular, there is a structural imbalance between domestic resource mobilization and current spending, especially on public wages and salaries, leaving little scope for domestically financed capital spending, which is essential for economic growth and social development. This fiscal imbalance is more pronounced than in similar sub-Saharan African countries, even after taking into account sizable one-off budget grants that benefited the Comorian economy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights difficulties the economy of Comoros encountered in 2015 and the first half of 2016. An ongoing crisis in the electricity sector and slower-than-expected implementation of the public investment program were the main factors behind the slower growth. Inflation remained well anchored at an annual rate of about 2 percent. Fiscal policy was challenging for most of 2015 as the impact of slower economic growth was compounded by lower revenues. Growth is projected to pick up somewhat to 2 percent in 2016, and revenues are projected to increase to 12 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES • The Comorian economy continues to grow although at a slightly slower pace. Economic growth in 2014 is projected at 3.3 percent, adversely affected by electricity disruptions and slower-than-expected implementation of the public investment program. Inflation has remained subdued. Staffs’ baseline assumption is that real GDP growth will average around 4 percent per annum over the medium term, provided reforms are implemented. • Implementation of the 2014 budget was challenging, particularly after mid-year. While revenues were broadly on target, resources were inadequate to meet the higher- than-budgeted wage bill resulting from an increase in teacher salaries in March and previously un-budgeted expenditures, including on elections. Domestically-financed investment spending was severely constrained and temporary arrears were incurred on salaries and external debt. • The key short-term challenge is to find a better balance between available resources and expenditures so that arrears can be avoided. Spending plans need to be based on realistic expectations of the resources likely to be available. The 2015 budget is premised on this principle but the scope for domestically-financed investment is inadequate as obligatory spending on wages and salaries and debt service absorbs most of domestic revenue. • For the medium-term the key challenges are to create fiscal space for infrastructure investment and social spending, accelerate inclusive growth and employment generation, and reduce poverty. The authorities need to focus their efforts on strengthening revenue administration and public financial management to expand fiscal space and improve transparency. Weaknesses in the business environment, including inadequate infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and difficulties in contract enforcement represent important challenges.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the Union of the Comoros’ Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Request for Waiver of a Performance Criterion. Performance under the ECF-supported program through end-June was broadly satisfactory. All but one of the performance criteria and all indicative targets for end-June were met. Most structural benchmarks were also met. The authorities are requesting a waiver for the nonobservance of the performance criterion on net credit to the government at end-June 2013. The IMF staff supports this request and recommends completion of the sixth and final review under the ECF arrangement.