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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding compilation of quarterly national accounts statistics. The finalization of the supply and use tables has involved incorporation of significantly revised source data for a number of industries since November 2013, as well as changes in the input data resulting from the implementation of methodological improvements. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics has also made a significant effort to finalize the source data and improve coverage of the economy over the past six months, resulting in revised data for a number of industries. The net impact has been to increase the GDP level by economic activity.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Uganda regarding finalization of the rebased GDP estimates for dissemination. For the economic activity worksheets, the nominal and real growth rates, intermediate consumption/gross output ratios at current and constant prices, and implicit price deflators were checked. A number of adjustments were made to the methodology to improve the representativeness of the indicators and the weights of the composite price indices to ensure the resulting estimates are within expectations. There is considerable scope to improve the price deflators and constant price estimates. Technical Assistance to improve the expenditure estimates will be provided during 2015.
Mr. Paul Cashin and Rahul Anand

Abstract

High and persistent inflation has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India in recent years, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. A number of factors underpin India’s high inflation. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation—the causes, consequences, and policies being implemented to manage it. Several chapters are devoted to analyzing and managing food inflation, given its significance in driving overall inflation dynamics in India.

Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Le FMI publie deux fois par an des Perspectives économiques régionales pour cinq régions : Asie et Pacifique ; Europe ; Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale ; Afrique subsaharienne ; et hémisphère occidental. Chaque rapport aborde l'évolution économique récente et les perspectives de la région concernée, ainsi que pour certains pays. Les rapports comportent des données statistiques clés sur les pays de la région. Chaque rapport traite des politiques qui ont eu une incidence sur les résultats économiques régionaux et précise les enjeux auxquels les décideurs sont confrontés. Les perspectives à court terme, les principaux risques et les difficultés de politique économique afférentes sont analysés tout au long des rapports, qui examinent également l'actualité (par exemple, comment mettre fin progressivement à l'intervention publique tout en préservant une reprise économique mondiale qui reste fragile). Ces rapports précieux sont l'aboutissement d'études interdépartementales exhaustives, fondées pour l'essentiel sur les renseignements recueillis par les services du FMI dans le cadre de leurs consultations avec les pays membres.