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Mr. Ron Alquist and Mr. Olivier Coibion
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
The statistical data on GDP, saving and investment, selected data on the banana industry, selected industrial production, consumer price index, monetary survey, summary operations of the Eastern Caribbean central bank, consolidated accounts of the commercial banks, summary balance of payments, value, volume, and unit value of major exports, imports and prices of petroleum products, merchandise trade volumes, direction of trade, selected tourism statistics, structure of public debt and effective exchange rate indices, and related economic indices have been detailed in this paper.
International Monetary Fund
The report highlights the IMF projections and estimates of St. Lucia's basic data indicators, its GDP by economic activity at constant and current factor cost, selected data on the banana industry, operations of the central government, operations of the consolidated public sector, monetary survey, summary operations of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, consolidated accounts of the commercial banks, structure of public debt 1999/2000–2004/05, selected tourism statistics, direction of trade, imports and prices of petroleum products, merchandise trade volumes, unit values, terms of trade, imports by SITC category, etc.
Mr. Claudio A Paiva
This paper provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of agricultural trade using a gravity model. The data set covers bilateral trade in agricultural goods for 152 countries over the periods 1990-93 and 1999-2002. The estimations support claims that protectionism and distortive subsidies to agriculture remain widespread in more developed nations, which are shown to import less and export more agricultural products than expected given other economic, political, and geographic determinants of trade. However, some developing regions that are often thought to be the main victims of industrial-country protectionism are also found to be relatively closed to agricultural trade.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing."
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.