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Nicoletta Batini, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, and Mr. Giovanni Melina
This paper estimates multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation to help inform stimulus measures for a post-COVID-19 sustainable recovery. Using a new international dataset, part of which was especially assembled for this analysis, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities—from zero-emission power plants to the protection of wildlife and ecosystems—can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. The estimated multipliers associated with green spending are about 2 to 7 times larger than those associated with non-eco-friendly expenditure, depending on sectors, technologies and horizons. These findings survive several robustness checks and suggest that ‘building back better’ could be a win-win for economies and the planet.
Felix Suntheim
The shutdown in economic activity due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis has resulted in a short-term decline in global carbon emissions, but the long-term impact of the pandemic on the transition to a low-carbon economy is uncertain. Looking at previous episodes of financial and economic stress to draw implications for the current crisis, we find that tighter financial constraints and adverse economic conditions are generally detrimental to firms’ environmental performance, reducing green investments. The COVID-19 crisis could thus potentially slow down the transition to a low-carbon economy. In light of the urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, these findings underline the importance of climate policies and green recovery packages to boost green investment and support the energy transition. Policies that support the sustainable finance sector, such as improved transparency and standardization, could further help mobilize green investments.
Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Mr. Prakash Loungani, and Ricardo Marto
For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. If consumption-based emissions—measures that account for countries' net emissions embodied in cross-border trade—are used, the evidence for decoupling in the richer economies gets weaker. Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts tend to show greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions. The relationship between trend emissions and trend GDP has also become much weaker in the last two decades than in preceding decades.
Ms. Nicole Laframboise and Mr. Boileau Loko
This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF’s role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance provided by the Fund to help governments put together a policy response or build a macro framework to lay the foundation for recovery and/or unlock other external financing. The literature and experience suggests there are ways to strengthen policy frameworks to increase resilience to natural disaster shocks, including identifying the risks and probability of natural disasters and integrating them more explicitly into macro frame-works, increasing flexibility within fiscal frameworks, and improving coordination amongst international partners ex post and ex ante.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Cinq ans après le début de la crise, certains pays se sont relevés, mais d'autres restent en difficulté. Ce numéro de F&D se penche sur le monde d'aujourd'hui : l'avenir de l'économie mondiale s'annonce complexe et contrasté. Dans « La reprise mondiale en perspective », nous apprenons que la plupart des pays émergents semblent s'être sortis des effets de la crise, mais ce n'est pas le cas pour la plupart des pays avancés. L'article « Réparer le système » aborde le ralentissement du rythme des réformes visant à renforcer la réglementation financière. Dans « Politique commerciale : bilan positif ? », Bernard Hoekman, économiste de la Banque mondiale spécialisé dans le commerce international, dresse un état des lieux des tendances protectionnistes. L'article « Témoins innocents de la débâcle » relate comment les pays émergents et à faible revenu ont surmonté la récession mondiale. Dans « Un déséquilibre stable », le financier Mohamed El-Erian se penche sur le risque potentiel que posent les considérables excédents et déficits de paiement. Dans cette édition, nous nous intéressons également à l'évolution des marchés des produits de base, à la progression des technologies vertes, aux mutations de la population active en Asie du Sud, et aux lourdes conséquences du blanchiment de capitaux pour les économies nationales. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » dresse le portrait de Laura Tyson, l'ennemie des inégalités, et « L’ABC de l’économie » explique comment les marchés monétaires permettent aux emprunteurs de répondre à leurs besoins de financement à court terme.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Cinco años después de los primeros sacudones de la crisis, algunos países se han recuperado, pero otros aún no han dejado atrás los problemas. F&D examina la actualidad mundial y observa un panorama complejo y desigual para el futuro de la economía mundial. “Tras la pista de la recuperación mundial” muestra que la mayoría de los mercados emergentes parecen haber superado los efectos de la crisis, pero no así la mayor parte de las economías avanzadas. “Arreglar el sistema” describe cómo se ha desacelerado el ritmo de las reformas encaminadas a afianzar la regulación financiera. Bernard Hoekman, economista del Banco Mundial especializado en comercio internacional, hace un balance del incipiente movimiento hacia el proteccionismo en “Política comercial: ¿Hasta ahora, todo bien?”. “Testigos del derrumbe” examina cómo capearon la recesión mundial los países de mercados emergentes y de bajo ingreso. En “Desequilibrio estable”, el financista Mohamed El-Erian evalúa la amenaza potencial que plantean los superávits y déficits de pagos. Este número aborda también lo que está ocurriendo en los mercados de materias primas, el surgimiento de las tecnologías verdes, los cambios en la fuerza laboral de Asia meridional y el perjuicio que el lavado de dinero puede causar a las economías nacionales. En “Gente del mundo de la economía”, F&D traza una semblanza de Laura Tyson y en “Vuelta a lo esencial” explica de qué manera los mercados monetarios permiten a los prestatarios satisfacer las necesidades financieras a corto plazo.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Five years after the first stirrings of the crisis, some countries have recovered, but others are still struggling. F&D looks at the world today and sees a complex and mixed picture for the future of the world economy. In "Tracking the Global Recovery" we learn that most emerging markets seem to have moved on from the effects of the crisis, but most advanced economies have not. "Fixing the System" looks at how the pace of reforms to strengthen financial regulation has now slowed. World Bank trade economist Bernard Hoekman takes stock of incipient moves toward protectionism in "Trade Policy: So Far So Good?". "Bystanders at the Collapse" looks at how emerging markets and low-income countries weathered the global recession. Financier Mohamed El-Erian weighs in on the potential threat posed by large payment surpluses and deficits in "Stable Disequilibrium." Also in the magazine, we explore what's happening in commodities markets, assess the rise of green technologies, take a look at the shifts in South Asia's labor force, and uncover the harm money laundering can inflict on national economies. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Laura Tyson, Minder of the Gaps, and the Back to Basics series explains how money markets provide a way for borrowers to meet short-term financial needs.