This paper discusses Senegal’s Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. GDP growth was lower than expected in 2013 but would increase to 4.9 percent in 2014 with a rebound in agriculture, mining, and industry. All quantitative assessment criteria and indicative targets for end-2013 were met, including on the budget deficit despite a significant revenue shortfall. Structural reform implementation has been slow, with many benchmarks met after their respective deadlines. Despite challenging prospects for 2014, the authorities intend to continue reducing the deficit. The IMF staff recommends completion of the seventh PSI review.
Salifou Issoufou, Mr. Edward F Buffie, Mouhamadou Bamba Diop, and Kalidou Thiaw
Senegal's fiscal deficit and public debt have been on the rise in recent years owing partly to an ailing and inefficient oil-based energy sector. In this paper we use a two-sector, open-economy, dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the effects of varying fiscal policy instruments one at a time and of policy packages that increase public investment in energy and infrastructure in scenarios with varying degrees of debt finance and with different types of supporting fiscal adjustment. Lowering the fiscal deficit by raising taxes and cutting government expenditure has adverse effects on growth, real wages and the supply of public services. Senegal does not need, however, to undertake such difficult fiscal adjustment. A public investment program that coordinates new investment in low-cost hydroelectric, coal or gas-fired power with a phased contraction of the oil-based sector raises the total supply of energy by 70 percent, increases real wages and real GDP, stimulates private investment, and significantly reduces the fiscal deficit in the medium long term. More aggressive investment programs borrow against future fiscal gains to combine new energy investments with either delayed or frontloaded investments in non-energy infrastructure. These programs lead to much higher real wages and real GDP while keeping public debt sustainable and the fiscal deficit low in the medium and long term.
The Article IV consultation with Senegal was completed by the Executive Board on December 10, 2012. In concluding the 2012 Article IV consultation, executive directors commended Senegal’s satisfactory program implementation despite the challenging internal and external environments. They stressed that although a moderate pickup in growth is expected in the near term, the economy remains exposed to substantial risks. Directors welcomed the authorities’ continued commitment to their program to ensure macroeconomic stability, strengthen the economy’s resilience to shocks, foster higher and sustainable growth, and reduce poverty. Directors noted that, while Senegal still faces a low risk of debt distress, high fiscal deficits and rising debt ratios need to be addressed.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
The Second Review under the policy support instrument (PSI) highlights that Senegal’s economy has remained resilient to the global economic turmoil. In line with the authorities’ new Document of Economic and Social Policies for 2011–15, the 2012 economic program supported under the PSI will target critical bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, which hinder growth and poverty reduction. The fiscal program will allow the authorities to scale up infrastructure investment, but requires keeping a prudent stance on the rest of the budget.
Senegal's economic recovery is continuing and has been largely unaffected by the political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire. Policy discussions focused on the economic implications of two new developments since the program was approved in December 2010. Fiscal policy faces a difficult trade-off between additional priority expenditure and the need to preserve debt sustainability. The sustainability of Senegal’s external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt appears vulnerable to rollover risks. This highlights the need for prudent debt management by Senegal, as it seeks to gain greater access to external resources.
The boundary between the public and private sectors can be defined on the basis of ownership of institutional units. Nonmarket government-owned entities and corporations that are owned or controlled by government units belong to the public sector. “Economic ownership” is more important than majority ownership. Joint ventures, public-private partnerships, and social insurance funds (including for public employees) can be unambiguously allocated to the public or private sector on the basis of international public sector accounting standards. Boundary problems within the public sector are just as acute as those between the public and private sectors, mainly because of ambiguities in distinguishing “market” from “nonmarket” activities.
This review is focused mainly on the implementation of the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) against the goals and expectations set out by the Executive Board. Some possible modifications to the PSI that have been considered by various stakeholders are also touched upon in the concluding section. This review was conducted in parallel with ongoing work on a new architecture of lending facilities for low-income countries (LIC). Based on the results of this review, the reform of LIC facilities is not expected to alter the case for the PSI as a complement to financing instruments.
Government price subsidies are pervasive in developed, emerging, and low-income countries. A subsidy is a form of government intervention resulting in a deviation of an actual price facing consumers and producers from a specified benchmark price. Subsidies affect consumption and production patterns as well as the distribution of resources, with important implications for the budget, expenditure composition, and long-term growth. They can and often do involve fiscal costs, but not all affect government fiscal accounts in the same way. Price subsidies have spillover effects onto prices and quantities in domestic, regional, or global markets. This paper discusses the key issues and policy options in the reform of subsidies for fossil fuels and selected food commodities, and their implications for the work of the Fund.