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Lucyna Gornicka and Ms. Laura Valderrama
We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks’ loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.
Mr. Seung M Choi, Ms. Laura E. Kodres, and Jing Lu
This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such “contagion effects” can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries’ use of macroprudential tools suggests that a “coordinated” implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Switzerland withstood relatively well the sharp appreciation that followed the exit from the exchange rate floor. Economic performance has continued to firm in 2016 with support from domestic and external demand. GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.5 percent in 2016, and to stabilize at 1.7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory in 2017 and to continue to rise to the middle of the target band. However, important external and domestic risks could affect this outlook, including resurgence in global financial market volatility, renewed concerns about the financial health of large global banks, and changes in Swiss–European Union economic relations.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Switzerland’s economy has performed relatively well in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with growth reaching 2 percent in 2014. However, the economic environment became more complicated in late 2014, as increased capital inflows forced the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to start intervening heavily to defend its exchange rate floor of 1.20 francs per euro. Over the medium term, the economy is expected to recover gradually. As the economy adjusts to the exchange rate appreciation, growth is projected to rise gradually back to about 2 percent over the medium term while inflation increases to about 1 percent.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation outlines that the growth of the Swiss economy has gathered pace, but inflation remains close to zero. The recovery is expected to continue and inflation should rise gradually although the output gap will progressively close. The fiscal position is healthy, with a broadly neutral stance projected for 2014. Despite improved market confidence toward the euro area and tapering in the United States, the exchange rate has remained close to the floor. The authorities have taken several measures to contain risks, including raising the countercyclical capital buffer and adopting prudential measures to tighten lending standards and conditions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Selected Issue Paper discusses the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) balance sheet risks and policy implications. Despite increased profit allocations, SNB capital has not kept pace with its growing balance sheet. The paper also explores the empirical determinants of pressures on the Swiss franc with the purpose of sorting out the relative importance of four factors: conventional monetary policy stance in other advanced countries and large emerging markets; quantitative easing and other unconventional policies pursued by major central banks; the euro area sovereign debt crisis; and global risk aversion.