International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper evaluates corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India. The analysis shows that while corporate sector risks have subsided, debt repayment capacity remains strained, and high leverage continues to weigh on corporate resilience, which may pose further risks to banks’ asset quality. Public sector banks have stepped up recognition of nonperforming assets, but their debt recovery capacity remains weak. Simulations suggest that potential recapitalization needs, at current provisioning levels, should have a modest fiscal impact.
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
Although progress has been made in strengthening the Swiss economy, systemic risks posed by large banks as well as revisions to the macroprudential framework are still in train. The authorities welcomed the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) legislation and intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on strengthening financial sector stability, and stressed the need of a strong macroprudential framework and a legal framework with regard to crisis prevention. The authorities supported adherence to the Swiss debt brake rule, and emphasized that sustainability of public finances should be further improved.
The paper assesses the competitiveness of Swiss exporters, and shows that the effect of nominal exchange rate on trade balance depends on the degree of exchange rate pass-through and on trade elasticities. It highlights that the degree of exchange rate pass-through should also be factored in monetary policy decisions. The authorities are considering legislative changes to strengthen macroprudential oversight by supporting the mutual cooperation between Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) over the financial stability. The scope of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) proposal should also be broadened to address systematic risk.
Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This Selected Background Issues paper on Switzerland reviews a few monetary and exchange rate issues, including questions related to the monetary policy framework and the assessment of recent monetary conditions and exchange rate developments. The paper examines the Swiss savings and investment levels from a welfare point of view, employing for this purpose some “golden rule” criteria of capital accumulation put forward in the academic literature. It finds that, with its unusually high levels of saving, Switzerland may be one of the few advanced industrialized countries that strictly fulfills the “golden rule” criteria.
This paper reviews economic developments in Côte d’lvoire during 1990–95. In 1994, the resumption of growth, initially concentrated in the area of some traded goods, became more widespread during the second half of 1994, offsetting the devaluation-induced contraction in the nontraded goods sectors and in the sectors sheltered from competition, which both suffered from the reduction in real disposable income. Output in volume terms increased at a rate of 4.5 percent in the primary and secondary sectors, and contracted further in the tertiary sectors.
This report describes recent developments and issues in Austria. The report discusses the structural features of the Austrian labor market. Two features—the relative importance of foreign labor supply, and the comparatively low labor force participation of certain groups—are analyzed in detail. The historical structure of the Austrian balance of payments is discussed, and the developments in 1994 are analyzed. The report also examines the Austrian tourism industry and its underlying problems. Developments in public finances are also elaborated.