Mr. Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim, and Concepcion Verdugo-Yepes
This paper argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo are
vulnerable to corruption as a result of limited transparency and accountability. Corruption
has potentially contributed to poor macro-fiscal outcomes. The paper acknowledges the
authorities’ anti-corruption efforts made so far and proposes further critical reforms to
reduce remaining vulnerabilities. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
results show that, depending on the reforms adopted, the potential additional growth can
range between 0.8 to 1.8 percent per year over the next 10 years, and debt can decline by
2.25 to 3 percent of GDP per year over the same period. These results suggest that macrofiscal
gains from anti-corruption reforms could be substantial even under conservative
This Selected Issues paper compares the growth performance of Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries with that of comparative countries. During the last two decades, the average growth of CEMAC countries has been slower than the sub-Saharan African average. The results of the analysis show that convergence of CEMAC countries toward emerging market levels has stalled, while some lower-income, faster-growing economies have been catching up. Decomposing growth by contributing factors reveals that the total factor productivity has had a negative impact on CEMAC’s growth.
The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
In this study, economic performance remained robust throughout the global downturn, and shows signs of further strengthening. In 2010, the external position improved significantly, as fiscal surpluses raised official foreign assets, and the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief significantly reduced external liabilities. Macroeconomic stability is well established, and the external position has improved. Private sector development has reduced oil dependence and is assuring sustained poverty-reducing growth. Efforts should be supported by policies to increase the private sector’s access to credit, and deepen financial intermediation to improve the financial performance of state-owned enterprises.
With the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) completion, Congo’s prospects for achieving sustained growth and poverty reduction have improved. The HIPC completion reduced debt service obligations and increased the resilience of external debt indicators to shocks. Non-oil revenue is improved through broadening the tax base and improving the design of the tax system. The objectives of the poverty reduction strategy (PRS) and fiscal sustainability would require lasting gains in non-oil revenue collection. IMF staff welcomes the authority’s good faith efforts to obtain comparable treatment from all remaining commercial creditors.
This paper discusses Congo’s progress under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). In the view of the staff of IDA and the IMF, Congo has met in full all of the triggers for reaching the completion point. All key decisions, actions, and measures required to observe the triggers have been taken, including a satisfactory track record of implementation for public investment management, procurement, governance and anticorruption, improvement in the internal controls and accounting of the state-owned oil company, and oil commercialization.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, Ms. Misa Takebe, Zaijin Zhan, Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita, and Mr. Robert C York
In this paper, we consider the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary instrument through which national governments can influence macroeconomic performance. We comment on how surveillance might be improved by broadening the region's current criteria through alternative fiscal indicators, some focus on the scope and nature of external shocks, and attention to the consistency of policies in assuring the viability of the union and its fixed exchange rate regime.