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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the “fiscal cliff” facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies’ resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the “fiscal cliff” facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies’ resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

La edición de octubre de 2012 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial evalúa el panorama con respecto a la recuperación global, considerando riesgos tales como la actual crisis de la zona del euro y el llamado abismo o precipicio fiscal al que se enfrentan las autoridades de Estados Unidos. Para reducir los riesgos que empañan las perspectivas a mediano plazo es necesario reducir la deuda pública en las principales economías avanzadas, y en el capítulo 3 se pasa revista a 100 años de historia en relación con problemas de sobreendeudamiento público. En las economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo, la actividad se ha desacelerado debido a la aplicación de políticas más restrictivas en respuesta a limitaciones de la capacidad, una menor demanda de las economías avanzadas y factores específicos de cada país. Sin embargo, el fortalecimiento de las políticas ha creado en estas economías mayor capacidad de resistencia a los shocks, tema que se examina en profundidad en el capítulo 4.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

L'édition d'octobre 2012 des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale examine les chances de reprise mondiale compte tenu des risques que posent la crise persistante de la zone euro et le « précipice budgétaire » qui menace les dirigeants américains. La réduction des risques pesant sur les perspectives à moyen terme passe par une réduction de la dette publique dans les principaux pays avancés, et le chapitre 3 dresse une rétrospective sur un siècle de la gestion du surendettement public. Dans les pays émergents ou en développement, l'activité a ralenti en raison d'un certain resserrement dû aux contraintes de capacité, du fléchissement de la demande des pays avancés, et de facteurs propres à certains pays, mais l'amélioration des politiques économiques a renforcé la résistance de ces pays face aux chocs. C'est ce qu'examine le chapitre 4.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.

Mr. Manuel Guitián

Abstract

Bretton Woods constituted the first formal international agreement on a code of conduct applicable for economic transactions among countries that had subscribed to it. This pamphlet focuses on only one aspect of that code of conduct: the norms that have guided the conduct of financial and exchange transactions among countries, as they have been presented in the original Articles of Agreement of the IMF and their subsequent amendments. The paper outlines the fundamental characteristics of the IMF, examines the direct link between surveillance and conditionalilty, explores potential risks and dangers that might compromise certain fundamental features of the institution, and presents a set of ideas and proposals to ensure the activities of the IMF maintain continuity of its institutional uniqueness.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper provides a survey of some issues concerning the evolution of the European Monetary System (EMS) in the context of increasingly integrated financial markets. It reviews the objectives of the EMS, its institutional structure, its perceived impact on key macroeconomic variables, and some criticisms of its current arrangements. It also describes the 1992 program to unify, inter alia, financial markets and then discusses the pressures that a more integrated financial marketplaces on country authorities and on financial firms. The prospective structural changes in European financial markets raise the issues of whether and how the EMS can continue to constitute a zone of monetary stability. Although the growing integration of financial markets is likely to increase the interdependence between monetary policies in the EMS countries, a nominal anchor could still be maintained by having the Bundesbank continue to lead the way on the course of monetary policy, or by formulating monetary policy on the basis of an index of traded goods prices, or through more far-ranging coordination of monetary policies.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper examines the types of market-related hedging instruments that could potentially be useful to indebted developing countries as they seek to manage the financial risks created by variability of the prices of external assets and commodities. The paper reviews the variability in interest rates, exchange rates, and prices of primary commodities and then analyzes the effects of this variability on the domestic and external performance of indebted developing countries. Market-related hedging instruments that are accessible to indebted developing countries are also examined.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The proposal to set up an international debt facility to buy the debt of developing countries at a discount and then mark down its contractual value is analyzed. The paper considers the central question of how the debtor countries, creditor banks, and owners of the facility would be affected; in particular, what redistribution of gains and losses there would be among them. The “market price effect” and the “ceiling effect” are distinguished. A crucial consideration is whether debt retained by banks is subordinated to debt bought by the facility.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

In its surveillance activities, the Fund is frequently confronted with the difficult problem of how to identify exchange rate behavior that is unrelated to underlying economic and financial conditions and, consequently, should be viewed with concern from a national or international standpoint. This paper considers the various issues related to this problem as it pertains to industrial countries, both those that have independently floating exchange rates and those that operate under other exchange arrangements.