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Elizabeth Gavin
This note outlines the interest of Revenue Administrations (RAs) and National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in the quality of data at their disposal, and how collaboration between these organizations can contribute to improving data quality. The similarities between the data collection and processing steps in revenue administration and in the production of economic statistics underlie meaningful information and data sharing. Mutually beneficial collaboration between RAs and NSOs can be achieved, particularly in efforts to improve the coverage of registers and to update register information; classify economic activity; and analyze joint data to address data shortcomings. Since there are differences in concepts and definitions used in revenue administration and official statistics, dialogue is necessary to ensure the effective use of data from the partner organization. Collaboration can improve the quality of data available to both institutions: for RAs, this can assist in realizing improved taxpayer compliance and revenue mobilization, and for NSOs, tax-administrative data sources may enable expanded coverage of the economy in official statistics and reduce timeframes required for publishing economic time series and national accounts. Together, these outcomes can enhance the policy formulation, planning, and service delivery capability of governments. To that end, this note delineates concrete steps to engender sustainable and meaningful interchange of information and data between the RA and NSO.
Luiza Antoun de Almeida and Mr. Thierry Tressel
This paper studies the evolution of non-financial corporate debt among publicly listed companies in major advanced economies between 2010 and 2017. Since 2010, firms have started to rely more on corporate bond markets and have used part of their debt to increase their holdings of cash. In our sample of some 5,000 firms, we find substantial differences across countries, industries, firms, and years in leverage and debt maturity, and we also identify time factors that are common drivers of capital structures. Within countries, loosening an index of financial conditions seems to be associated with lengthening debt maturity after controlling for firms’ characteristics. Across firms and countries, leveraging and lengthening debt maturity have been greater where economic growth was stronger. Tighter financial conditions are positively associated with an increase in short-term debt financing. Quantile regressions suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity among firms on how they react to macro-financial conditions: large increases in long-term debt financing and large declines in short-term debt financing tend to be driven more by better macroeconomic performance, while large increases in short-term debt financing are more strongly impacted by tighter financial conditions. Since the paper uses data up to 2017, it does not reflect developments that occurred during the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, sensitivity analysis shows that a significant amount of corporate debt, representing more than 5 percent of GDP, could be at risk in some countries, with an adverse spillover to the financial system if financial conditions tighten or economic growth slows down. This suggests that vulnerabilities should be closely monitored and policy action taken if warranted.
Mr. Christian H Ebeke and Jesse Siminitz
We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
International Monetary Fund
The Seventh PMR includes: (i) a discussion of progress made over the last year on the actions corresponding to four Management Implementation Plans (MIPs) that were classified as still “in progress” in the previous PMR; and (ii) an assessment of the progress made in achieving the high-level objectives in three areas directly related to those MIPs. In addition, an update on substantive issues related to five older MIPs agreed since 2007 is provided at the end of the report. Three new evaluations have been completed by the IEO since March 2014. In July and August 2015, Management issued the MIPs in response to these evaluations. Given that only a short time has passed since their completion, progress in addressing the actions contemplated in those MIPs will be discussed in the next PMR.
International Monetary Fund
The financial crisis underscored the need to develop an effective international framework to resolve cross-border financial institutions and groups. The development of such a framework has been a priority for the international community. Many important milestones have been achieved—most notably the adoption by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) of the Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions (the Key Attributes) which is emerging as a new (nonbinding) international standard. Fund staff have been heavily involved in their development. The Key Attributes specify essential features that should be part of the resolution framework at both the national and international levels, with the key objective of making resolution feasible without severe systemic disruption and without exposing taxpayers to loss. These features include a comprehensive “toolkit” of resolution powers for national authorities, including powers to: (i) assume control of a financial institution from existing managers and owners; (ii) effect a resolution of the troubled institution through the sale or merger of the entity, the transfer of assets and liabilities of the institution to third parties, or through unilateral debt restructuring or “bail-in”; and (iii) support the resolution through a temporary stay on the execution of early termination rights under financial contracts.
International Monetary Fund
The global financial crisis has tested the effectiveness of supervision under the “Twin Peaks” model. The crisis revealed the strengths of the “Twin International Peaks” model, as decisions were able to be made in a timely manner to contain the crisis, and clear divisions of powers and responsibilities were instrumental in ensuring effective coordination between key agencies. However, the crisis also exposed certain areas where improvements could strengthen the “Twin Peaks” framework. Intensive and well-focused efforts are being made to strengthen the supervisory framework.
International Monetary Fund
The global financial crisis hit the Netherlands' financial sector hard. This note analyzes the Dutch framework for crisis management and bank resolution, and formulates recommendations to address observed weaknesses. The overall framework for official financial support to stem systemic crisis is appropriate. The current framework for resolving ailing banks in going could be strengthened considerably. The framework for the orderly liquidation of banks could be strengthened and fine-tuned. The deposit guarantee scheme (DGS) has a number of helpful characteristics, but could be significantly enhanced.
International Monetary Fund
The European Union’s (EU) financial stability framework is being markedly strengthened. This is taking place on the heels of a severe financial crisis owing to weaknesses in the banking system interrelated with sovereign difficulties in the euro area periphery. Important progress has been made in designing an institutional framework to secure microeconomic and macroprudential supervision at the EU level, but this new set-up faces a number of challenges. Developments regarding the financial stability may assist in the continuing evolution of the European financial stability architecture.
International Monetary Fund
The Netherlands has been heavily affected by the global financial crisis. The “Twin Peaks” supervision model, with Netherlands Central Bank - De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) as the prudential supervisor, and the Authority for Financial Markets (AFM) responsible for conduct-of-business supervision, was severely tested, although the case for the model remains strong. The crisis has shown that these institutions bring sizable risks, which requires careful and comprehensive monitoring and supervision. The findings of the Financial Stability Assessment Program (FSAP) are summarized. Top-down stress tests were conducted. Supervisory colleges are an important innovation to reinforce home-host coordination for supervisors of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs).