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International Monetary Fund
This paper is the fifth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are a group of 59 IMF member countries primarily defined by income per capita below a threshold level. LIDCs contain one fifth of the world’s population—1.5 billion people—but account for only 4 percent of global output. The first chapter of the paper discusses recent macroeconomic developments and trends across LIDCs and, using growth decompositions, explores the key drivers of growth performance in LIDCs. A second chapter examines the challenges faced by LIDCs in implementing a value-added tax system, generally seen as a key component of a strong national tax system. The third chapter discusses how financial safety nets can be appropriately tailored to the specific needs of LIDCs, recognizing that an effective safety net is important for ensuring financial stability and underpinning public confidence in the financial system, thereby promoting financial intermediation.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
Patrick A. Imam and Ms. Christina Kolerus
The financial system in the WAEMU remains largely bank-based. The banking sector comprises 106 banks and 13 financial institutions, which together hold more than 90 percent of the financial system’s assets (about 54 percent of GDP at end-2011). Five banks account for 50 percent of banking assets. The ownership structure of the sector is changing fast, with the rapid rise of foreign-owned (pan-African) banks. This contributes to higher competition but also rising heterogeneity in the banking system, with large and profitable cross-country groups competing with often weaker country-based (and sometime government-owned) banks. Nonbank financial institutions are developing quickly, notably insurance companies, but remain overall small. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the banking system.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila and Mr. Masafumi Yabara
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have seen accelerated growth for an extended period of time since the mid-1990s, making a clear break with their long stagnant growth during the previous two decades. That said, the region faces significant challenges over the medium to long term, including reducing poverty, overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks, enhancing productivity and skill levels, and improving the business climate, among others. The banking sector remains underdeveloped in SSA, thus reducing its contribution to growth, although its limited integration with global financial markets helped countries weather adverse effects of the global financial crisis. It is imperative that the banking sector plays a more active role in SSA, in order to achieve sustainable growth led by the private sector. This paper, building on the recent literature on SSA, discusses the main features of the region’s growth and macroeconomic performance in recent years and the outlook for the coming years; it then reviews the main features of SSA banking systems and how they were affected by the global economic crisis, while flagging some factors that could influence financial sector developments in SSA in the period ahead.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Military coups that occurred in Guinea-Bissau and Mali caused economic disruption in the WAEMU countries. Regional policies have been in line with the recommendations, and growth is expected to remain robust, risks are on the downside, and the macroeconomic policy is appropriate. Preserving debt sustainability and stability of the Union in the medium term requires better coordination of fiscal policies. Development of the financial system, and strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework is necessary to address existing and new risks.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La recuperación para salir de la peor recesión en 60 años ha empezado, pero para sustentarla se precisa un equilibrio delicado de políticas a escala nacional e internacional. En el artículo central, el economista principal del FMI, Olivier Blanchard, afirma que la recuperación no será sencilla. La crisis ha dejado cicatrices profundas y duraderas en la oferta y la demanda. En este número de F&D abordamos la evolución de la crisis mundial y la situación futura. Analizamos temas como el repliegue del apoyo brindado durante la crisis, el crecimiento mundial tras la crisis, la reforma de la arquitectura financiera y el futuro de las monedas de reserva. Jeffrey Frankel reseña las últimas tendencias monetarias a nivel mundial y un equipo del Departamento de Estudios examina cómo los sistemas de alerta anticipada pueden ayudar a detectar problemas en el futuro. En "Gente del mundo de la economía" entrevistamos a Daniel Kahneman, ganador del premio Nobel por sus aportes en el campo de la economía del comportamiento, y en "Bajo la lupa" seguimos la evolución de la tasa de política monetaria del Banco de Inglaterra, que se encuentra en su nivel más bajo en 300 años. En "Vuelta a lo esencial" se presenta un abecé sobre política monetaria, y en "Un vistazo a las cifras" se examina el impacto de la crisis en el sistema bancario de Europa oriental.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La sortie de la récession la plus profonde des 60 dernières années est engagée. Mais pour entretenir la reprise, les pays devront bien doser leur action, aux plans national et international. Olivier Blanchard, Chef économiste du FMI, donne le ton en rappelant dans son article que le redressement ne sera pas aisé. La crise a laissé de profondes séquelles qui pèseront encore pendant longtemps sur l’offre et la demande. Cette édition de F&D se penche sur l’évolution à venir de la crise mondiale et sur son issue. Comment dénouer les politiques de relance? Quelle croissance après la crise? Comment reconstruire l’architecture financière? Quel est l’avenir des monnaies de réserves? Jeffrey Frankel examine ce qui est en vogue et ce qui ne l’est plus dans la finance internationale, et une équipe du Département des études analyse ce que l’on est en droit d’attendre des systèmes d’alerte précoce. Dans la rubrique «Paroles d’économistes», nous nous entretenons avec Daniel Kahneman, lauréat du Prix Nobel et pionnier de l’économie comportementale. La section «Pleins feux» trace, quant à elle, la chronologie du taux directeur de la Banque d’Angleterre qui a atteint son plus bas niveau en trois cents ans. « L’ABC de l’économie » rappelle les principes de la politique monétaire, tandis que « Gros plan » porte sur les effets de la crise pour le système bancaire de l'Est de l'Europe.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.