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Stefan Mittnik, Willi Semmler, and Alexander Haider
Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback e?ects on the macroecon-omy. Research on disaster risks has also actively been pursued in the macroeconomic models of climate change. Our paper uses insights from the former work to study disaster risks in the macroeconomics of climate change and to spell out policy needs. Empirically the link between carbon dioxide emission and the frequency of climate re-lated disaster is investigated using cross-sectional and panel data. The modeling part then uses a multi-phase dynamic macro model to explore this causal nexus and the e?ects of rare large disasters resulting in capital losses and rising risk premia. Our proposed multi-phase dynamic model, incorporating climate-related disaster shocks and their aftermath as one phase, is suitable for studying mitigation and adaptation policies.
Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo, Mr. Leo Bonato, Mr. Giovanni Melina, and Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection —insurance and self-insurance— and structural protection —investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the St. Lucia’s economy, this paper shows that both strategies considerably reduce the output loss from natural disasters and studies the conditions under which each of the two strategies provides the best protection. While structural protection normally delivers a larger payoff because of its direct dampening effect on the cost of disasters, financial protection is superior when liquidity constraints limit the ability of the government to rebuild public capital promptly. The estimated trade-off is very sensitive to the efficiency of public investment.
Manoj Atolia, Mr. Prakash Loungani, Helmut Maurer, and Willi Semmler
The Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) has extensively treated the adverse effects of climate change and the appropriate mitigation policy. We extend such a model to include optimal policies for mitigation, adaptation and infrastructure investment studying the dynamics of the transition to a low fossil-fuel economy. We focus on the adverse effects of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on households. Formally, the model gives rise to an optimal control problem of finite horizon consisting of a dynamic system with five-dimensional state vector consisting of stocks of private capital, green capital, public capital, stock of brown energy in the ground, and emissions. Given the numerous challenges to climate change policies the control vector is also five-dimensional. Our solutions are characterized by turnpike property and the optimal policy that accomplishes the objective of keeping the CO2 levels within bound is characterized by a significant proportion of investment in public capital going to mitigation in the initial periods. When initial levels of CO2 are high, adaptation efforts also start immediately, but during the initial period, they account for a smaller proportion of government's public investment.
United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and World Bank

Abstract

Los datos comparables y fiables que respaldan marcos analíticos y de política coherentes son imprescindibles para fundamentar los debates y orientar las políticas relativas a las interrelaciones entre la economía y el medio ambiente. El Sistema de Contabilidad Ambiental y Económica 2012: Marco central (Marco central SCAE) es un marco estadístico compuesto por conjunto integral de cuadros y cuentas, que guía la compilación de estadísticas e indicadores coherentes y comparables para la formulación de políticas y las tareas de análisis e investigación. Ha sido elaborado y publicado con el auspicio de las Naciones Unidas, la Comisión Europea, la Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura, la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Grupo Banco Mundial. El Marco central SCAE refleja las necesidades cambiantes de los usuarios, nuevos acontecimientos en el ámbito de la contabilidad de la economía ambiental y avances en la metodología de investigación.

United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and World Bank

Abstract

Comparable and reliable data supporting coherent analytical and policy frameworks are essential elements to inform debates and guide policy related to the interrelationships between the economy and the environment. "The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012—Central Framework" (SEEA Central Framework) is a statistical framework consisting of a comprehensive set of tables and accounts, which guides the compilation of consistent and comparable statistics and indicators for policymaking, analysis and research. It has been produced and is released under the auspices of the United Nations, the European Commission, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank Group. The SEEA-Central Framework reflects the evolving needs of its users, new developments in environmental economic accounting and advances in methodological research.

United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and World Bank

Abstract

Des données comparables et fiables sous-tendant des cadres cohérents d'analyse et de politique publique constituent des éléments essentiels pour guider les débats et orienter les politiques liées aux interactions entre l'économie et l'environnement. Le cadre central du système de comptabilité économique et environnementale 2012 (SCEE) est un cadre statistique consistant en un ensemble complet de tableaux et de comptes qui guident l'établissement de statistiques et d'indicateurs cohérents et comparables aux fins d'élaboration de politiques, d'analyses et de recherches. Il est produit et publié conjointement par les Nations unies, la Commission européenne, l’Organisation des Nations Unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture, l'Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques, le FMI et le groupe de la Banque mondiale. Le cadre central du SCEE reflète l'évolution des besoins de ses utilisateurs, des pratiques en matière de comptabilité économique et environnementale et de la recherche méthodologique.

United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and World Bank

Abstract

Comparable and reliable data supporting coherent analytical and policy frameworks are essential elements to inform debates and guide policy related to the interrelationships between the economy and the environment. "The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012—Central Framework" (SEEA Central Framework) is a statistical framework consisting of a comprehensive set of tables and accounts, which guides the compilation of consistent and comparable statistics and indicators for policymaking, analysis and research. It has been produced and is released under the auspices of the United Nations, the European Commission, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank Group. The SEEA-Central Framework reflects the evolving needs of its users, new developments in environmental economic accounting and advances in methodological research.

Mr. Alan H. Gelb, Mr. Arnaud Dupuy, and Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper studies the optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall. To do so, we use an augmented version of the Permanent Income framework with public investment faced with adjustment costs capturing the associated administrative capacity as well as government direct transfers. A key assumption is that those adjustment costs rise with the size of the resource windfall. The main results from the analytical model are threefold. First, a larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers. Second, weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall. Third, higher total factor productivity in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of des-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity. We further extend our basic model to allow for "investing in investing" - that is public investment in administrative capacity - by endogenizing the adjustment cost in public investment. Results from the numerical simulations suggest, among other things, that a higher initial stock of public administrative "know how" leads to a higher level of optimal public investment following a resource windfall. Implications for policy are discussed.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) review the macroeconomic impact of the resource sector. Lao PDR’s economic performance is becoming increasingly dependent on the activities of the large mining and hydropower projects. The economic value of the resource projects is significant, even if only proven mineral reserves and hydropower plants are considered. The overall macroeconomic impact of the resource sector over the medium term will depend on the quality and timeliness of the policies adopted to sustain the growth of the non-resource sector.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.