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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an assessment of the redistributive impact of fiscal policies in Togo by estimating the impact of taxation and spending on household-level income inequality and poverty rates. Although the combination of direct taxes and subsidies is found to reduce inequality, it increases poverty rates, as the value of taxes paid by lower-income households outweighs the value of transfers they receive, increasing the share of the population living below the poverty line. These findings highlight the importance of targeting spending to lower-income households as the authorities progressively shift public spending from infrastructure to social expenditures.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero, and David Corvino
This paper examines the constraints that negative externalities (i.e., smuggling from a large neighbor) impose on the application of automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms. It is often recommended to establish an automatic price adjustment mechanism to reduce fuel subsidy expenditures, but this approach may not work in the presence of these externalities. The paper illustrates the constraints by examining the case of Nigeria, a major oil exporter that subsidizes gasoline, and that of Togo, an oil importer and neighbor of Nigeria. It finds that the price differential between formal prices in Togo and Nigeria is the main driver of changes in formal sector gasoline consumption. Specifically, the lower the formal price in Nigeria, the higher is smuggling from Nigeria to Togo, and the lower the tax base in Togo. The econometric results suggest that, unless the real economy is performing very well, increases in pump prices in Togo are likely to erode the tax base, unless there are greater border controls. The unintended consequences of Nigeria’s pricing policies are the constraint they impose on fuel pricing policies of its neighbors and the subsidy Nigeria transfers to them (equivalent to at least 3 percent of Togo’s GDP in 2011), three-quarters of which was captured by smugglers in 2011, while one-quarter enhanced consumers surplus through lower gasoline prices.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the assessment of economic activity in Togo in absence of quarterly GDP series. Togo collects about 40 macroeconomic indicators monthly that span a wide range of sectors of the economy. The selection of the variables for the economic activity index is conducted by finding the combination of variables. The indicators are aggregated into an index using a methodology used by the Conference Board. Then an economic activity index is constructed that effectively replicates the historical growth rates of real GDP in Togo. The selected index minimizes the deviations between the growth rates of the indicator and actual real GDP growth over 2002–13.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Economic growth has remained strong in recent years, averaging 5.4 percent in 2013-14, on the back of productivity gains in the agricultural sector and public investment in infrastructure. The pace of economic growth has contributed to improving human development indicators, though poverty remains high. The fast pace of public investment has laid the basis for higher growth but has also contributed to a pronounced increase in public debt and current account deficit.

International Monetary Fund

Togo’s economic performance continued its gradual improvement, marking progress in overcoming the legacy of its protracted domestic crisis. The program has broadly achieved its objectives for growth and macroeconomic stability. The improving economic performance and sound policies have continued, despite the adverse impact of the global oil price shock, particularly on fiscal policy. The discussions focused on fiscal and structural policies to achieve higher economic growth while maintaining stability. Accelerated structural reforms are key for robust, sustained, and quality growth.

International Monetary Fund

Togo’s economic performance continued its gradual improvement, marking progress in overcoming the legacy of its protracted domestic crisis. The program has broadly achieved its objectives for growth and macroeconomic stability. The improving economic performance and sound policies have continued, despite the adverse impact of the global oil price shock, particularly on fiscal policy. The discussions focused on fiscal and structural policies to achieve higher economic growth while maintaining stability. Accelerated structural reforms are key for robust, sustained, and quality growth.

Mrs. Kerstin Gerling and Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos
Using a consistent dataset and methodology for all eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line with theory and most evidence for advanced and emerging market economies, higher inflation increases inflation uncertainty and relative price variability in all WAEMU countries. However, the pattern, magnitude and timing of these two channels vary considerably by country. The findings raise several policy issues for future research.
International Monetary Fund

Togo’s macroeconomic situation remains difficult, despite some modest improvements. Despite the impact of the global recession, program implementation has generally been satisfactory, although corrective actions are necessary for recent slippages. Debt management and monitoring are being strengthened. In light of the difficult macroeconomic conditions, a countercyclical fiscal policy stance is required. Sustainable fiscal policy requires a gradual consolidation, as global conditions improve further. Togo’s main economic challenges are continuing to strengthen public finances and completing structural reforms to enhance growth potential.

International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Togo’s Poverty Reduction Strategy. The Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper adopted by the government in March 2008 has allowed Togo once again to benefit from international financial cooperation. With a view to improving political and economic governance, the government continued the ongoing process of national reconciliation and political reform, strengthening the rule of law and the security of persons and property, and implementation of institutional reforms. The government has introduced reforms designed to improve governance in nonperforming state enterprises and in the banking sector.