Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 38 items for :

  • Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics?Environmental and Ecological Economics x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia.
Ms. Pritha Mitra, Amr Hosny, Gohar Minasyan, Mr. Mark Fischer, and Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
International Monetary Fund
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.1 Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth, which is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco. At the same time, unemployment remains high. Moreover, several of the ACTs have also suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges. Libya and Yemen are directly affected, while spillovers from these conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe. These spillovers come most prominently in the form of large refugee flows, deteriorating security, and pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets. All these factors add urgency to the need in the Arab countries to strengthen economic resilience and address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion. Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be also critical in stabilizing conditions in the region, addressing the refugee crisis, and securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The cost of energy subsidies is large, and reduces the fiscal space available for public expenditure priorities, including education, health, and infrastructure. Libya’s ample hydrocarbon wealth will allow it to reform subsidies while protecting the poor. A gradual phasing out of subsidies would allow adjustment in consumption and minimize the inflationary impact, thereby allowing the social assistance system to be strengthened. After a transfer mechanism is in place to facilitate fuel and electricity subsidy reform, food subsidy reform should be undertaken.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The political and security environment remains uncertain in Libya. Libya faces the challenges of stabilizing the economy and responding to the aspirations of the revolution. The near-term outlook is favorable, but there are significant risks. The overarching policy objective should be to foster inclusive growth. Banks are not intermediating, and resources should be devoted to its effective implementation. Expenditure is skewed toward wages and subsidies. Libya needs to adopt a comprehensive reform strategy. The government agrees with the assessment of the economic outlook and associated risks and policy options as outlined by Executive Directors.

International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation focuses on Chad’s economic developments and policies. Economic performance in 2011–2012 has been marked by an oncoming stream of several large industrial projects. The IMF report highlights that growth slowed in 2011 and inflation accelerated at year’s end, while the balance of payments strengthened. The nonoil primary deficit declined in 2011, and the overall fiscal balance swung from a deficit to a small surplus leaving room for private-sector credit expansion. A new approach, developed in collaboration with international partners (including the Food and Agriculture Organisation and World Food Programme), focuses on improving water management, warehouse capacity, and information systems.
Mr. Serhan Cevik and Mr. Mohammad Rahmati
This paper investigates the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Libya during the period 1970–2010. The empirical results vary with estimation methodology and model specification, but indicate the lack of long-run relationship between financial intermediation and nonhydrocarbon output growth. The OLS estimation shows that financial development has a statistically significant negative effect on real nonhydrocarbon GDP per capita growth. However, the VAR-based estimations present statistically insignificant results, albeit still attaching a negative coefficient to financial intermediation. It appears that nonhydrocarbon economic activity depends largely on government spending, which is in turn determined by the country’s hydrocarbon earnings.
International Monetary Fund
Political uncertainty in the Arab Countries in Transition (ACT) has continued in recent months, especially as the escalation of the conflict in Syria is creating negative regional spillovers.1 While transition governments have maintained macroeconomic stability thus far, serious short-term risks continue, and the authorities have made limited progress in building consensus for needed economic reforms. With the exception of Libya, the ACTs’ growth in 2012 has remained weak in light of continued policy uncertainty, regional tensions, the deteriorating global economy, and high food and fuel commodity prices. A moderate recovery is expected in 2013. The shrinking of fiscal and reserve buffers over the past year has left very little policy space and heightened vulnerabilities. Prompt policy action and timely and adequate international support are essential to maintain macroeconomic stability and address long-running structural deficiencies, to lay the foundation for inclusive growth and job creation for a young and growing population.
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.