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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a steady recovery during 2010–12 from the deep 2009 recession, Armenia’s growth softened in 2013 and has remained subdued in 2014. The softening of economic activity has been broad based, as growth of exports and remittances slowed, and government spending was lower than budgeted. Construction, which had declined since the 2009 crisis, was relatively flat. Growth is projected at 2.6 percent in 2014 and is expected to increase only gradually in 2015 and over the medium term in light of expectations of slow growth in key trading partners. The authorities’ policies remain geared toward maintaining macroeconomic stability and fostering sustainable and inclusive growth.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

This paper discusses Armenia’s Request for Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Performance under the 2010–2013 program, which was supported by arrangements under the EFF and Extended Credit Facility (ECF), was sound, with growth restored, large fiscal and external imbalances reduced, and buffers rebuilt. However, challenges remain, particularly in further reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening medium-term growth dynamics. Fiscal policy will support the growth recovery in 2014 by providing a modest stimulus, before moving to a gradual consolidation stance in 2015–2017. The IMF Staff supports the authorities’ request for an IMF-supported program.

International Monetary Fund

Armenia’s third review under the Stand-By Arrangement and its request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion are discussed. The uptick in inflation was largely driven by exogenous factors, but it is important that these do not feed into further inflationary expectations. The financial sector has been resilient to the crisis and almost all banks are well capitalized. The fiscal stimulus has appropriately supported the economy during the crisis and maintaining priority public spending has been critical for mitigating the impact of the crisis on the poor

International Monetary Fund

This paper discusses Armenia’s request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with exceptional access of 400 percent of quota. Given the urgency of the situation, the request is being considered under the Emergency Financing Mechanism. The new program aims to achieve the necessary external adjustment, restore confidence in the domestic currency and the banking sector, and protect the poor. The authorities have also committed to a set of policies in the exchange rate, monetary and financial, and fiscal areas as well as on maintaining its ongoing structural reform program.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for the Republic of Armenia shows that building up fiscal space during economic expansions is crucial for the effective implementation of stimulatory policies during downturns. Armenia’s tax revenue remains one of the lowest in the region, and significantly below potential. The legislative changes introducing a VAT threshold and a simplified regime for those businesses below the threshold, as well as the adoption of a comprehensive and ambitious modernization plan for revamping tax administration, are promising steps in the right direction.