Mindaugas Leika, Hector Perez-Saiz, Ms. Olga Ilinichna Stankova, and Torsten Wezel
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.
To assess the financial stability in Nigeria, various stress tests and analytic processes were undertaken jointly by the Nigerian authorities and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) team. The exercise included macroeconomic scenario analysis and its transmission into a range of single- and multifactor shocks. The tests covered the entire Nigerian banking system and looked at the short-term horizon, in part because of data constraints. Sensitivity stress tests estimated the impact of changes in individual variables on banks’ portfolios.
The assessment of the implementation of the Basel Core Principles (BCP) was conducted for effective banking supervision in Nigeria. The assessment team reviewed the legal framework for banking supervision and held extensive discussions with the staff of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). It is assessed that Nigeria has recorded significant improvement in its level of compliance with the BCPs, which is attributed to the enhancement of the supervisory capacity of Nigerian banking system supervisors.
This paper describes and analyzes forward market systems with varying degrees of sophistication, and it assesses them from the viewpoint of a smaller industrial or developing country asking itself how it could institute such a system, or how it could further develop an existing system in a way consistent with its institutional and macroeconomic structure. All industrial countries except Iceland now have forward exchange markets in which the rate is determined by the market. Forward markets that have been liberalized in several countries in the 1980s have matured quickly. There are several variants of market-determined systems which could be envisaged. An auction market could be devised for forward transactions, but is unlikely to be practical, because the supply of forward exchange probably may not be determined in advance sufficiently accurately. As the last stage of its development, the market could be extended from underlying commercial transactions to forward transactions of a purely financial character, a process that is taking place in most of the few industrial countries that have retained regulated forward systems. Development of a forward market is not a panacea for incorrect financial policies. In fact, cultivation of the market will require the adoption and maintenance of realistic financial policies.