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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of Nigeria in response to their request for technical assistance. Unlocking the potential of a rapidly growing population requires substantial improvements in human and physical capital. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Recognizing challenges, Nigeria has embraced the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017–2020 gives prominence to economic, social and environmental issues. This report assesses additional spending associated with making substantial progress along the SDGs. The report focuses on critical areas of human and physical capital. For each sector, the report documents progress to date, assesses Nigeria relative to peers, highlights challenges, and estimates the spending to make substantial SDG progress. Nigeria has shown gradual improvements in education. A gradual and strategic approach should be considered given the relatively large additional spending.
Corinne Deléchat, Ms. Ejona Fuli, Mrs. Dafina Glaser, Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, and Rui Xu
This paper studies the role of fiscal policies and institutions in building resilience in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2013, with specific emphasis on a group of twenty-six countries that were deemed fragile in the 1990s. As the drivers of fragility and resilience are closely intertwined, we use GMM estimation as well as a probabilistic framework to address endogeneity and reverse causality. We find that fiscal institutions and fiscal space, namely the capacity to raise tax revenue and contain current spending, as well as lower military spending and, to some extent, higher social expenditure, are significantly and fairly robustly associated with building resilience. Similar conclusions arise from a study of the progression of a group of seven out of the twenty-six sub- Saharan African countries that managed to build resilience after years of civil unrest and/or violent conflict. These findings suggest relatively high returns to focusing on building sound fiscal institutions in fragile states. The international community can help this process through policy advice, technical assistance, and training on tax administration and budget reforms.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure needs in Cameroon and makes policy recommendations to address them. In doing this, it provides advice to strengthen the public investment management framework, including public–private partnerships (PPP). The paper reviews the recent experience with public investment and PPPs and discusses policy options: increasing spending on public investment through traditional public procurement, while preserving fiscal sustainability; increasing the efficiency of public investment institutional processes; and increasing reliance on private-sector participation in infrastructure, while properly addressing their associated fiscal risks. Infrastructure indicators in Cameroon trail those of regional peers. Despite a slight improvement in the overall quality of infrastructure in 2013, infrastructure indicators remain low when compared to other sub-Saharan African countries, especially for roads, air transport, and electricity. A large body of theoretical and empirical work finds a positive relationship between public investment and growth. Physical and social infrastructure is widely considered to be a critical input for economic growth, productivity, and welfare.
Mr. Robert C York and Ms. Misa Takebe
In the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of "sustainability" is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion - Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo - using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.
Mario Mansour and Mr. Michael Keen
This paper evaluates the nature and extent of, and possible responses to, two of the central challenges that globalization poses for revenue mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): from corporate tax competition, and from trade liberalization. It does so using a new dataset with features needed to meaningfully address these issues: a distinction between resourcerelated and other revenues, and a disentangling of tariff from commodity tax revenue. Countries' experiences vary quite widely, nonresource revenues have been essentially stagnant. Corporate tax revenues have held up, despite a reduction in rates and evidence of substantial base-narrowing-something of a puzzle-and trade tax revenue reductions have been largely offset by other measures. Options for dealing with the continuation and intensification of the challenges, which the present crisis is likely to accelerate-including through regional cooperation-are discussed.
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes competitiveness in Chad since the advent of the oil era in the 2000s. Oil has since positioned itself as the key sector of a traditional economy that previously depended on agriculture and some light manufacturing. Dominated by developments in the oil sector, Chad’s balance of payments is vulnerable to the indirect effects of the sector’s volatility. The country’s ample reserves are insulated from oil sector shocks to the extent that oil-sector-related flows for trade in goods and service, factor income, and capital automatically offset each other.
Holger Fabig
This paper proposes a general framework for monitoring macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries, defined as consisting of the three subsectors of crude oil and natural gas production, refinery, and electricity production. It aims to derive consistent information on physical and financial flows in the sector, including on interlinkages between the subsectors. It then applies this framework to Côte d'Ivoire. While being an important source of growth, the Ivoirien energy sector is found to have important shortcomings, in particular as regards transparency, efficiency and contribution to fiscal revenue. Among the key problems are partially intransparent production sharing arrangements for hydrocarbon production, price distortions for natural gas, administered prices for refined petroleum products, underfunding and lack of investment in the electricity sector, and inefficient government subsidies in the latter two subsectors.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) Monitoring and Implementation Report 2005 for Chad. The strategy is based on the attainment of five core objectives: good governance, robust and sustained growth, the development of human capital, improved living conditions for the most vulnerable segments of the population, and environmental protection. This report aims to provide a more comprehensive account of the measures taken and results achieved since the beginning of NPRS implementation.