International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the impact of adjusting to commodity shocks in Trinidad and Tobago. With commodity resources being nonrenewable, developing a long-term strategy can help avoid unsustainable policies and ensure greater intergenerational equity. Recent country experiences highlight the benefits of precautionary buffers in smoothing fiscal adjustment process. Prudent and countercyclical fiscal policy implementation, structural reforms, and economic diversification can help contain the impact of commodity price booms and busts. Strong fiscal institutions are needed to help achieve and sustain the fiscal adjustment. Different adjustment strategies may be feasible depending on the needed size of the adjustment and country-specific circumstances. Trinidad and Tobago have faced several years of weak or negative growth on the back of terms-of-trade and energy supply shocks. A well-designed fiscal framework that considers potential uncertainties associated with commodity cycles can help improve fiscal management. Countercyclical policy implementation would help smooth the impact of commodity-induced sharp fluctuations in the economy.
Capital markets can improve risk sharing and the efficiency with which capital is allocated to the real economy, boosting economic growth and welfare. However, despite these potential benefits, not all countries have well developed capital markets. Moreover, government-led initiatives to develop local capital markets have had mixed success. This paper reviews the literature on the benefits and costs of developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations emerging from this literature.
Deleveraging has two components--shrinking of balance sheets due to increased haircuts/shedding of assets, and the reduction in the interconnectedness of the financial system. We focus on the second aspect and show that post-Lehman there has been a significant decline in the interconnectedness in the pledged collateral market between banks and nonbanks. We find that both the collateral and its associated velocity are not rebounding as of end-2011 and still about $4-5 trillion lower than the peak of $10 trillion as of end-2007. This paper updates Singh (2011) and we use this data to compare with the monetary aggregates (largely due to QE efforts in US, Euro area and UK), and discuss the overall financial lubrication that likely impacts the conduct of global monetary policy.
Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar and Mrs. Teresa Ter-Minassian
Fiscal discipline is essential to improve and sustain economic performance, maintain macroeconomic stability, and reduce vulnerabilities. Discipline is especially important if countries, industrial as well as developing, are to successfully meet the challenges, and reap the benefits, of economic and financial globalization. Lack of fiscal discipline generally stems from the injudicious use of policy discretion. The benefits of discretion are seen in terms of the ability of policymakers to respond to unexpected shocks and in allowing elected political representatives to fulfill their mandates. But discretion can be misused, resulting in persistent deficits and procyclical policies, rising debt levels, and, over time, a loss in policy credibility. The authors first explore the role of discretion in fiscal policy, and the extent, consequences, and causes of procyclicality, particularly in good times. They then examine how a variety of institutional approaches—fiscal rules, fiscal responsibility laws, and fiscal agencies—can help improve fiscal discipline. While each of these approaches can play a useful role, the authors suggest that a strategy combining them is likely to be particularly beneficial. Although such a strategy requires political commitment and effective fiscal management, at the same time, the strategy itself can bolster political commitment by highlighting the restraints on government and raising the costs of failing to respect them.
This paper presents an update to the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency for Chile. Chile has completed the first stage of the migration of its fiscal statistics to the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). A main result of this migration is the production of the operating statement, corresponding to flow transactions, for the central government, the general government, and the consolidated public enterprises. However, the treatment of interest payments on inflation-indexed bonds and on debt owed to the central bank differs from that in GFSM 2001.
This report assesses the Observance of Standards and Codes on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations for Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) in Chile. Banking secrecy provisions continue to limit the ability of Chile to investigate and disclose potential money laundering offences and, thereby, to provide effective international cooperation through the financial intelligence unit. Provisions are available for mutual legal assistance but they are cumbersome. The expanded AML/CFT regime introduced by Law 19.913 is too recent to permit any conclusions about the effectiveness of its implementation.
The paper discusses options available to tax mineral extraction projects particularly in developing countries. A desirable government share of the economic rent generated from mineral extraction can be achieved through different tax and non-tax instruments. This gives some room to design a fiscal regime that will be attractive to investors while providing the government with a fair share of the economic rent. However, achieving this will require a careful assessment of the appropriate distribution of risk and reward between the investor and the government. Moreover, there is growing pressure on countries to provide increasingly lenient fiscal terms so as to remain competitive as global investment destinations.
Volume II, edited by Robert C. Effros, contains the collected views of banking and legal expers, gathered at the second IMF-sponsored seminar of central banks general counsels. Matters of both international and domestic concern are addressed. The contributors analyze topics ranging from concepts of international monetary law to aspects of the debt crisis and the role of the international financial institutions; banking development in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and elsewhere; developments in the payments systems; and measures to counter money laundering.