International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that United Arab Emirates has continued to benefit from its perceived safe haven status and large fiscal and external buffers that have helped limit negative spillovers from lower oil prices, sluggish global growth, and volatility in emerging market economies. Non-oil growth remained robust at 4.8 percent in 2014, driven by construction. The economic outlook is expected to moderate amid lower oil prices. Non-oil growth is projected to slow to 3.4 percent in 2015, before increasing to 4.6 percent by 2020, supported by the implementation of mega projects and private investment in the run-up to Expo 2020.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
This paper reviews the exchange regimes of five emerging market countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia-and one oil-exporting country-Iran-to see whether they need to consider adopting more flexible arrangements as they further open their economies to trade and capital flows.
The population of the Middle East and North Africa is one of the fastest growing in the world, but jobs have not grown as fast as the region’s workforce. This paper addresses questions such as"Can current GDP growth generate more employment, or will higher GDP growth be required?"and "Will the current pattern of job creation-with much of the region’s workforce employed by the public sector-need to change?"
Ms. Sena Eken, Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, Ms. Susan Fennell, and Mr. Jean-Pierre Chauffour
This paper provides an economic overview of the very diverse countries within the large geographical area. It highlights the economic challenges and opportunities facing the MENA region, the policies pursued by the countries in the region, and the outlook for the external environment. The paper concludes with eight policy recommendations.