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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAEMU) regional macroeconomic surveillance framework to control all sources of debt accumulation and ensure debt sustainability. WAEMU’s regional surveillance framework aims at ensuring the sustainability of national fiscal policies and their consistency with the common monetary policy. While fiscal deficits have been the main driver of public debt across WAEMU member countries, the size of residual factors has varied greatly among these countries. The WAEMU Macroeconomic Surveillance Framework would benefit from adjustments to more effectively set the region’s public debt on a sustainable path. In addition, beyond adhering to the WAEMU fiscal deficit rule, member countries must curb below-the-budget-line operations. This would require improved monitoring of fiscal risks and the building of adequate budget provisions to address such risks before they materialize. Improved Treasury practices would also help eliminate the recourse to pre-financing arrangements and tighten control over expenditure. Public dissemination of the WAEMU progress report and strengthened peer-to-peer learning among member countries could improve the momentum for reforms.
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on West African Economic and Monetary Union presents external stability assessment report. The current account deficit declined in 2014. Although gross international reserve coverage has increased slightly, part of the current account deficit has been financed by a decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets. Contingent on the implementation of government’s consolidation plans, and helped by a favorable oil price outlook, the current account deficit would further gradually decline and be matched by enough financial inflows in the medium term. According to various metrics, the real exchange rate appears to be broadly aligned with fundamentals. International reserve coverage should increase to provide stronger buffers against immediate short-term risks. Structural competitiveness and investment efficiency improvements will be essential to ensure that the planned large investment programs translate into growth and export gains as well as increased private inflows into the region.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper reviews Mali’s 2012–2017 Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper. Mali’s GDP was CFAF 1,741.89 billion in 2012; real growth was ?1.2 percent, that is, excluding inflation (2.7 percent in 2011). The decline of 3.9 points in growth between 2011 and 2012 was finally stemmed, despite the major shocks that Mali had to face in 2012. The dual security and institutional shock had a negative impact on the entire economy, and more particularly on certain subsectors such as construction and public works, the hotel industry, and commerce. The GDP growth rate was ?1.2 percent in 2012, compared with 2.7 percent in 2011.
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
The paper examines Senegal’s growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducing and distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades, but poverty reduction has slowed in recent years. Although available indicators sometimes give conflicting signals on distributional shifts, people in the middle of the income distribution have received the most benefit, mainly in urban areas. Further progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and exploration of growth opportunities in the sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The NDP aims at transforming Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging market and halving the poverty rate. The framework for poverty reduction can be improved by developing a program of targeted interventions to support growth in key strategic sectors, public investment management, maintaining fiscal and debt sustainability and implementation of energy sector reforms. The fiscal strategy focuses on scaling up public investment and sustainability. The public sector investment program and the macroeconomic projections of the PND are a good strategy. Risks to successful implementation are exogenous shocks, resistance to structural reforms, and sociopolitical instability in the country.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Côte d’Ivoire's government decided on the National Development Plan to give a new impetus to its development policy. This new strategy is based on an ambitious and realistic recovery and development program centered on private and public investment. The institutional monitoring framework for the implementation of the 2012–15 NDP includes five organs working together for a vibrant, sustained, inclusive, and all-embracing economic growth. The total cost of investments arising out of the proactive scenario, “the Triumph of the Elephant,” stands at 11,076 billion with equal share given to public and private sectors.
International Monetary Fund
En Janvier 2009, le gouvernement de la Côte d’Ivoire a publié son premier document complet de stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté (DSRP), s’étendant sur la période allant de 2009 à 2015. Le DSRP a été discuté par les Conseils d’Administration de l’IDA et du FMI respectivement les 27 et 31 Mars 2009. Il est axé autour de 4 conclusions :(i) rétablissement et raffermissement des fondements de la République; (ii) transformation de la Côte d’Ivoire en un pays émergent; (iii) amélioration du bien-être pour tous; (iv) transformation de la Côte d’Ivoire en un acteur dynamique de la scène régionale et mondiale. En février 2011, le gouvernement de la Côte d’Ivoire a publié un Rapport d’Avancement du DSRP, sur la période s’échelonnant de 2009 à 2011. Aucun rapport annuel d’avancement n’a été élaboré en 2010 ou 2011.