The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
This paper and the companion background paperpresent a simple conceptual framework to better understand cross-border trade and financial interconnectedness. Countries are grouped together into “clusters” on the basis of having relatively tight trade and financial connections (e.g., Asian supply chain). Clusters are connected to one another through “gatekeepers” (e.g., Austria is a gatekeeper to the Central and Eastern Europe, and Sweden to the Baltics), and countries that are central to the whole network are in the “core” (the systemic-5). By mapping this architecture of cross-border trade and financial interconnectedness, the papers provide—at a glance—an easy way to comprehend the direct and indirect linkages of countries. The papers suggest that gatekeepers in particular can play a role in dampening or amplifying and propagating shocks, and this role depends on the economic context and policy space.
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Guinea. All but two quantitative performance criteria (PC) were met. IMF staff supports the authorities’ requests for waivers of nonobservance, based on their remedial actions. Progress of structural reforms was broadly satisfactory and all structural PCs and benchmarks for end-December 2007 were met. However, several quantitative indicative targets for end-March 2008 were missed, in part on account of a delayed response to the financial pressures arising from higher fuel prices.
Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.
This paper presents several IMF’s selected decisions of the Executive Board and selected documents. The Executive Board approves the draft Guidelines for Determining the Amount of Reserve Assets to Be Paid in Connection with Subscriptions set forth. These guidelines shall be considered by a Committee of the Executive Board established to consider an application for membership in the IMF or to consider a request for an increase in quota that is made outside the framework of a general review of quotas. The amount of the subscription to be paid in reserve assets shall be determined in the light of all the payments of reserve assets made by existing members and the country's external reserve position at the time of membership. Considering the asset payments made by all members in connection with the Sixth General Review of Quotas and adding them to the sum of asset payments taken as the equivalent of 25 per cent of total quotas as of the date of the Second Amendment, the reserve asset payments made by all members average 20 per cent of present quotas.
This paper proposes for adoption by the Executive Board as guidelines for Committees of the Executive Board when considering the amount of a subscription that should be paid in reserve assets. In applying the guidelines, a Committee shall pay due regard to present and prospective economic and financial circumstances of the country concerned. A reasonable approximation of the amount of the subscription that has been paid in reserve assets in the past is the average of all reserve assets actually paid in terms of the quotas of all members, rather than the proportions paid in the past by individual members. In making the calculation of the reserve assets to be paid, account will be taken of the repurchases made in the past by members, including those made in accordance with Schedule B of the amended Articles, and of sales of the currencies of members made to reduce to that level the amounts of the member’s currency paid in excess of 75 percent of quota by a member that had joined the IMF before the date of the Second Amendment.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
This paper examines the role of the IMF’s first and longest-lasting borrowing arrangements, the General Arrangements to Borrow (GAB), from their inception in 1961–62 to their fundamental reform and enlargement in 1983. The General Arrangements were a product of the times. They were designed to help the IMF deal with growing strains in the par value system caused by the underlying balance-of-payments problems of the two major reserve centers, the United States and the United Kingdom. The General Arrangements were strengthened by the association of Switzerland, a nonmember of the IMF, in 1964.
Cette brochure porte sur le rôle des premiers accords d'emprunt du FMI, qui ont aussi été ceux de plus longue durée, les accords généraux d'emprunt (AGE), depuis leur introduction en 1961–62 jusqu'à leur réforme fondamentale et leur extension en 1983. Les accords généraux répondaient aux nécessités du moment. Ils avaient pour objectif de permettre au FMI de remédier aux tensions croissantes qui apparaissaient au sein du régime des parités fixes, en raison des difficultés latentes de balance des paiements éprouvées par les deux principaux centres de réserve, à savoir les États-Unis et le Royaume-Uni. Les accords généraux d'emprunt ont été renforcés en 1964 par la participation de la Suisse, qui n'est pas membre du FMI.
En este estudio se examina el papel del primer acuerdo de financiamiento celebrado por el FMI, y el de mayor duración, los Acuerdos Generales para la Obtención de Préstamos (AGP), desde sus inicios en 1961-62 hasta su reforma integral y ampliación en 1983. Estos acuerdos fueron un producto de su época. Se diseñaron con el objetivo de ayudar al FMI a sobrellevar las dificultades por las que atravesó el sistema de paridades como resultado de problemas fundamentales de balanza de pagos en los principales centros de reservas, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido. Estos Acuerdos Generales se vieron reforzados en 1964 mediante la incorporación de Suiza, país que no era miembro del FMI.