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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Le taux de croissance économique de l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait descendre cette année à son plus bas niveau depuis plus de vingt ans, en raison d’un environnement extérieur moins porteur et d’une réaction insuffisante de la part des pouvoirs publics. Globalement, la région connaît en fait une croissance économique à deux vitesses : tandis que la plupart des pays peu tributaires des exportations de ressources naturelles — la moitié des pays de la région — continuent d’enregistrer de bons résultats, car ils bénéficient de la diminution de leur facture pétrolière, de l’amélioration du climat des affaires et de la poursuite des investissements d’infrastructure, la plupart des pays exportateurs de produits de base subissent de graves tensions économiques. C’est le cas en particulier des pays exportateurs de pétrole, dont les perspectives à court terme se sont nettement dégradées ces derniers mois. L’Afrique subsaharienne reste néanmoins une région dont le potentiel économique est immense, mais un ajustement des politiques publiques s’impose d’urgence dans les pays les plus touchés pour permettre un rebond de la croissance.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.

International Monetary Fund
This paper examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) against the back-drop of a sharp fall in international commodity prices. The focus here—by contrast with IMF (2014a)—is on recent developments and the near-term outlook, recognizing that the new price environment is likely to remain in place for several years to come. The paper also includes a section examining the experience of LIDCs with capital inflows over the past decade.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis. The slowdown has been greatest in the advanced economies, particularly in the United States, where the housing market correction continues to exacerbate financial stress. The emerging and developing economies have so far been less affected by fi nancial market developments and have continued to grow at a rapid pace, led by China and India, although activity is beginning to slow in some countries. At the same time, headline infl ation has increased around the world, boosted by the continuing buoyancy of food and energy prices. Policymakers around the world are facing a diverse and fast-moving set of challenges, and although each country's circumstances differ, in an increasingly multipolar world it will be essential to meet these challenges broadly, taking full account of cross-border interactions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis. The slowdown has been greatest in the advanced economies, particularly in the United States, where the housing market correction continues to exacerbate financial stress. The emerging and developing economies have so far been less affected by fi nancial market developments and have continued to grow at a rapid pace, led by China and India, although activity is beginning to slow in some countries. At the same time, headline infl ation has increased around the world, boosted by the continuing buoyancy of food and energy prices. Policymakers around the world are facing a diverse and fast-moving set of challenges, and although each country's circumstances differ, in an increasingly multipolar world it will be essential to meet these challenges broadly, taking full account of cross-border interactions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

La expansión mundial está perdiendo impulso en el contexto de una crisis financiera de gran envergadura. La desaceleración ha sido mayor en las economías avanzadas, sobre todo en Estados Unidos, donde la corrección del mercado inmobiliario continúa exacerbando las turbulencias. Hasta ahora, las economías emergentes y en desarrollo se han visto menos afectadas por los acontecimientos en los mercados financieros y han seguido creciendo a un ritmo acelerado, lideradas por China e India, aunque la actividad está comenzando a desacelerarse en algunos países. Al mismo tiempo, el nivel general de inflación ha aumentado en todo el mundo, impulsado por el continuo repunte de los precios de los alimentos y la energía. En todo el mundo las autoridades se enfrentan a un conjunto de desafíos de índole diversa y en rápida evolución, y aunque las circunstancias de cada país son diferentes, en un mundo cada vez más multipolar será esencial afrontar esos desafíos de manera amplia, teniendo plenamente en cuenta las interacciones transfronterizas. En Perspectivas de la economía mundial se presentan análisis y proyecciones del personal técnico del FMI sobre la evolución económica a escala mundial, en grupos generales de países (clasificados por región, grado de desarrollo, etc.) y en muchos países individuales. El estudio se centra en las principales cuestiones de política económica y en el análisis de la evolución y las perspectivas de la economía. Este informe suele prepararse dos veces al año, como documentación para las reuniones del Comité Monetario y Financiero Internacional, y es el principal instrumento de las actividades de supervisión mundial que realiza el FMI.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

L'expansion mondiale ralentit face à une crise financière majeure. Le ralentissement est le plus marqué dans les pays avancés, en particulier aux États-Unis, où la correction du marché immobilier continue à exacerber les tensions financières. Les pays émergents et les pays en développement ont été moins touchés jusqu'à présent par les turbulences financières et ont continué d'enregistrer une croissance rapide, avec la Chine et l'Inde comme moteurs, bien que l'activité commence à ralentir dans certains pays. L'inflation non corrigée a augmenté dans le monde entier, en raison de la vigueur persistante des prix de l'alimentation et de l'énergie. Les pays du monde entier font face à divers problèmes qui changent rapidement, et, si les circonstances varient d'un pays à l'autre, il sera essentiel, dans un monde de plus en plus multipolaire, de s'attaquer à ces problèmes de manière globale, en tenant compte pleinement de l'interaction entre les pays. Les Perspectives de l’économie mondiale présentent l’analyse de l’évolution économique au niveau mondial et les projections des services du FMI, par grands groupes de pays (classés par région géographique, selon le stade de développement, etc.) ainsi que dans plusieurs pays individuels. Les rapports portent essentiellement sur les grandes questions économiques, ainsi que sur l’analyse de l’évolution et des perspectives économiques. Ils sont en général préparés deux fois par an, à titre de documentation de référence pour les réunions du Comité monétaire et financier international, et constituent le principal instrument des activités de la surveillance multilatérale du FMI.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis. The slowdown has been greatest in the advanced economies, particularly in the United States, where the housing market correction continues to exacerbate financial stress. The emerging and developing economies have so far been less affected by fi nancial market developments and have continued to grow at a rapid pace, led by China and India, although activity is beginning to slow in some countries. At the same time, headline infl ation has increased around the world, boosted by the continuing buoyancy of food and energy prices. Policymakers around the world are facing a diverse and fast-moving set of challenges, and although each country's circumstances differ, in an increasingly multipolar world it will be essential to meet these challenges broadly, taking full account of cross-border interactions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?' asks how economies will fare after the record-high prices of key raw materials posted in recent months, which build on dramatic increases from their lows of 2000. The lead article warns that the impact on headline inflation levels might persist throughout 2008, even without further commodity price hikes. It urges policymakers to ensure efficient functioning of market forces at the global level, and to move swiftly to protect the poorest. Another article addresses the effects of climate change on agriculture, warning that farm production will fall dramatically—especially in developing countries—if steps are not taken to curb carbon emissions. Other articles on this theme argue that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need not hobble economies, and that financial markets can help address climate change. 'People in Economics' profiles John Taylor; 'Picture This' says the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; 'Country Focus' spotlights South Africa; and 'Straight Talk' examines early warnings provided by credit derivatives. Also in this issue, articles examine China's increasing economic engagement with Africa, and the outsourcing of service jobs to other countries.