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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Los cinco informes sobre las perspectivas económicas regionales (informes REO) que el FMI publica semestralmente abarcan Asia y el Pacífico, Europa, Oriente Medio y Asia Central, África sub-sahariana y las Américas. En cada informe se analizan la evolución reciente y las perspectivas económicas de la respectiva región, tanto en su conjunto como en países específicos. Los informes incluyen datos clave sobre los países de cada región. En cada informe se enfocan los acontecimientos de política económica que han incidido en los resultados económicos de la región y se analizan los desafíos que tienen ante sí las autoridades. También se analizan de manera exhaustiva las perspectivas a corto plazo, los principales riesgos y los desafíos de política conexos, como por ejemplo cuándo y cómo retirar las intervenciones públicas en los sistemas financieros a escala mundial, preservando al mismo tiempo una recuperación económica que aún es frágil. Estos estudios indispensables son el producto de exámenes interdepartamentales exhaustivos de la evolución económica basados principalmente en la información que el personal del FMI recopila en las consultas con los países miembros.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

International Monetary Fund
This note conducts a business cycle accounting analysis for systemic economies, with an emphasis on spillover effects from macroeconomic versus financial shocks. The systemic economies under consideration are China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This analysis is based on historical decompositions of output growth derived from the estimated structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies, documented in Vitek (2012). Within this framework, each economy is represented by interconnected real, external, monetary, fiscal, and financial sectors. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages
International Monetary Fund
Indonesia’ 2008 Article IV Consultation reports that Indonesia’s growth performance remains strong despite the deteriorating global environment. The economy remains vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment, and volatility in the government bond market has increased. The new policy of increased reselling of official foreign exchange receipts from oil exports should support the rupiah and help dampen inflation, but a more automatic mechanism for recycling official reserves would, in addition, enhance liquidity and foreign exchange market development.
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi and Mr. Andrew J Swiston
VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding real net exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects dominate spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere.
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Pär Österholm
This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and U.S. or world growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions.