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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper looks at links between Indonesia’s commodities sector and recent corporate sector and banking system performance. On the production side, oil and natural gas output has fallen since 2010, with existing fields in decline, while production of coal, palm oil, and rubber output has increased steadily. Recent trends in commodity exports have had a significant impact on corporate revenues and profits. For corporations operating in the nonrenewable commodities sector, liabilities and debt ratios have increased significantly in recent years. This paper highlights that risks facing the commodities sector will likely stay elevated in the near term, given slowing growth of several major trading partners and the outlook for lower commodity prices.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The November 2008 Asia and Pacific REO focuses on the difficult economic environment facing policymakers in the region. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the outlook for the region. With growth slowing, and the global financial crisis increasingly affecting the region, macroeconomic and financial policies will need to be proactive. Chapter 2 looks more closely at inflation in Asia, finding that it is increasingly imported and volatile, which raises important questions about monetary policy frameworks in the future. Chapter 3 takes a longer-term look at how the expected rapid aging of the region may affect capital flows and financial markets in the years to come.