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  • Kazakhstan, Republic of x
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Maria Sole Pagliari and Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The global crisis is now affecting the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia region, and economic and financial vulnerabilities are rising. In the Middle East and North Africa, good economic fundamentals, appropriate policy responses, and sizable currency reserves are helping mitigate the impact of the shock. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, lower commodity prices and adverse economic developments in Russia have hit hard. The report notes that countries should prepare for the contingency of a prolonged global slowdown by supporting domestic demand for a longer period and strengthening financial systems further. In some countries with rising unemployment, it will be important to target government resources and policies on protecting the poor; in others, increased donor support will be necessary to maintain needed economic development.

Ali Alichi and Mr. Rabah Arezki
The paper provides an alternative explanation for the "resource curse" based on the income effect resulting from high government current spending in resource rich economies. Using a simple life cycle framework, we show that private investment in the non-resource sector is adversely affected if private agents expect extra government current spending financed through resource sector revenues in the future. This income channel of the resource curse is stronger for countries with lower degrees of openness and forward altruism. We empirically validate these findings by estimating non-hydrocarbon sector growth regressions using a panel of 25 oil-exporting countries over 1992-2005.
International Monetary Fund
The Republic of Kazakhstan’s 2008 Article IV Consultation shows that banks have lost access to new external financing, credit extension has stalled, and growth has slowed. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan has considerable public financial resources to help it weather the current situation and the country is benefiting from high oil and commodity prices. A realistic assessment of the health of banks needs to be made and steps taken to mitigate risks, including by bolstering capital bases, strengthening bank supervision, and further developing the financial safety net framework.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Published twice yearly, the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) was created to provide a more frequent assessment of global financial markets by the IMF and to address emerging market financing in a global context. It provides timely analysis of developments in both mature and emerging market countries and seeks to identify potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis. The GFSR aims to deepen its readers’ understanding of global capital flows, which play a critical role as an engine of world economic growth. Of key value, the report focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues of financial imbalances, and of a structural nature, that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición del Boletín del FMI para la web se actualiza varias veces a la semana, y contiene una amplia variedad de artículos sobre temas de actualidad en materia de políticas y economía. Conozca las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche entrevistas digitales a destacados economistas del FMI sobre importantes cuestiones de la economía mundial.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
De Rato in Brazil; Article IV summaries: Pakistan, Ukraine, CEMAC; Dawson on IMF's transparency revolution; Capital flight, institutions, and instability; Eastern Caribbean; Germany's regulation; Kazakhstan's non-oil sector; Trade, aid, and growth.
Mr. George T. Abed and Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Recent studies have highlighted the adverse impact of corruption on economic performance. This paper advances the hypothesis that corruption is largely a symptom of underlying weaknesses in public policies and institutions, a formulation that provides deeper insights into economic performance than do measures of “perceived corruption.” The hypothesis is tested by assessing the relative importance of structural reforms vs. corruption in explaining macroeconomic performance in the transition economies. The paper finds that for four widely used measures of economic performance—growth, inflation, the fiscal balance, and foreign direct investment—structural reforms tend to dominate the corruption variable.
Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak and Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
This paper estimates equilibrium dollar wages for 15 transition economies. Equilibrium dollar wages are interpreted as full employment wages consistent with a country’s physical and human capital endowment, and estimated by regressing actual dollar wages on productivity and human capital proxies in a short (1990-95) panel of 85 countries. The main results are: (i) equilibrium dollar wages have appreciated steadily in the Baltic countries and fast-reforming Central and Eastern European (CEE) transition economies, but have been flat in most CIS countries; and (ii) 1996 actual dollar wages remain below estimated equilibrium dollar wages for most but not all transition countries covered.