This paper presents a model-based fiscal Taylor rule and a toolkit to assess the fiscal stance, defined as the change in the structural primary balance. This is built on the normative buffer-stock model of the government (Fournier, 2019) which includes key channels like hysteresis, cycle-dependent multipliers and a risk premium. A simple fiscal Taylor rule prescribes the fiscal stance as a function of past government debt, past output gap and the past structural primary balance. Applications suggest several advanced economies could have better managed their fiscal stance over the last 20 years. Simulations provide fiscal stance recommendations over the medium-term.
Mr. Tobias Adrian, Mr. Douglas Laxton, and Mr. Maurice Obstfeld
Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
This paper investigates the effects of unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy.
Using recently proposed shadow interest rates to capture unconventional monetary policy at the zero
lower bound (ZLB) we estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model for Canada - a
useful case where foreign shocks can be proxied by U.S. variables alone. We find that, during the
ZLB period, Canadian unconventional monetary policy increased output (measured by industrial
production) by 0.013 percent per month on average while US unconventional monetary policy raised
Canadian output by 0.127 percent per month on average. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of
domestic unconventional monetary policy and the strong positive spillover effects that foreign
unconventional monetary policies can have in a small open economy.