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Mr. Marshall B Reinsdorf
COVID-19 changed consumers’ spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and over-weighting of falling transport prices are the main causes of the underestimation of inflation. Updated CPI weights should be developed as soon as is feasible, but flux in spending patterns during the pandemic complicates the development as quickly as 2021 of weights that represent post-pandemic spending patterns.
Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil
This paper assesses house prices in 11 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) using the borrowing-capacity and the net-present-value approaches. The results indicate that by the end of 2018, house prices in most metropolitan areas are aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals. However, in Hamilton, Toronto, and Vancouver house prices have increased beyond the values implied by the fundamentals.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economy has continued to perform well, but trade tensions, uncertainty about the outcome of NAFTA negotiations and the impact of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Canada’s competitiveness are casting a shadow over the outlook.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
Statistical Office of the European Communities, International Labour Office, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations, and World Bank

Abstract

Para la mayor parte de los ciudadanos, la compra de un inmueble residencial —una vivienda— es la operación más importante de toda la vida. Los inmuebles residenciales hogares y, al mismo tiempo, el activo más valioso. Los índices de precios de inmuebles residenciales (IPIR) son números índice que miden el ritmo al que evolucionan los precios de los inmuebles residenciales con el correr del tiempo. Los IPIR son estadísticas fundamentales no solo para los ciudadanos y los hogares del mundo entero, sino también para las autoridades económicas y monetarias. Entre otras cosas, sirven para vigilar los desequilibrios macroeconómicos. Este Manual presenta por primera vez pautas exhaustivas para la compilación de IPIR y explica en detalle los métodos y las prácticas óptimas utilizados para calcularlos. Asimismo, examina los conceptos económicos y estadísticos fundamenmetodológicas y prácticas para la compilación de este tipo de índice. El Manual está dirigido principalmente a los encargaíndices; al mismo tiempo, atiende la necesidad general de IPIR ofreciendo a todas las partes interesadas en su compilación un marco metodológico y práctico armonizado. El Manual es obra de destacados especialistas en la teoría de números índice y reconocidos expertos en la compilación de estadística de la Unión Europea, con la colaboración del Banco Mundial, la Comisión Económica de las Naciones Unidas para Europa (UNECE), el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), la Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT) y la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE).

Statistical Office of the European Communities, International Labour Office, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations, and World Bank

Abstract

L'achat d'un logement est généralement l'opération financière la plus importante à laquelle un citoyen procédera au cours de sa vie. Le logement représente la plus grande proportion des dépenses des ménages, mais également leur bien le plus cher. Les indices des prix de l'immobilier résidentiel mesurent le taux de variation de ces prix au fil du temps. Ces statistiques sont essentielles non seulement pour les ménages du monde entier, mais également pour les décideurs de la politique économique et monétaire. Parmi leurs utilisations professionnelles, ils servent par exemple à surveiller les déséquilibres macroéconomiques et l'exposition aux risques du secteur financier. Ce manuel, premier du genre, présente des orientations complètes pour l'établissement des indices des prix de l'immobilier résidentiel et explique en détail les méthodes et bonnes pratiques utilisées pour leur calcul. Il examine également les fondements économiques et statistiques sous-jacents, et définit les principes qui orientent les choix méthodologiques et pratiques pour l'établissement des indices. Le manuel est destiné principalement aux statisticiens officiels chargés de produire des indices des prix de l'immobilier résidentiel, ainsi qu'à toute partie intéressée par l'établissement de tels indices, en leur fournissant un cadre méthodologique et pratique harmonisé. Le manuel des indices des prix de l'immobilier résidentiel a été rédigé par d'éminents spécialistes universitaires de la théorie des indices et par des experts de l'établissement de tels indices. Sa préparation a été coordonnée par l'Office statistique de l’Union européenne (Eurostat), avec la collaboration de la Banque mondiale, de la Commission économique des Nations Unies pour l’Europe, du Fonds monétaire international (FMI), de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) et de l’Organisation internationale du travail (OIT).

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the housing and business cycles in the United Kingdom. The UK housing cycle is highly volatile as a result of tight housing supply constraints and fluctuations in credit conditions. Housing supply-side constraints can be alleviated through changes to the planning system and tax reforms. The new National Planning Policy Framework introduced by the government is creating the incentives for local councils to increase available land for construction. There are early signs that this change in the planning system is contributing to the recovery in housing construction. Targeted macroprudential policies could address financial stability risks stemming from the housing market. Although mortgage credit as a share of gross domestic product has been declining in the current housing recovery, there are signs that there is a build-up of financial risks: loan-to-income ratios are increasing in London and among first time buyers.
Mr. Ivo Krznar and Mr. James Morsink
The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of the policy measures taken by Canadian authorities to address the housing boom. We find that the the last three rounds of macroprudential policies implemented since 2010 were associated with lower mortgage credit growth and house price growth. The international experience suggests that—in addition to tighter loan-to-value limits and shorter amortization periods—lower caps on the debt-to-income ratio and higher risk weights could be effective if the housing boom were to reignite. Over the medium term, the authorities could consider structural measures to further improve the soundness of housing finance.
Statistical Office of the European Communities, International Labour Office, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations, and World Bank

Abstract

For most citizens, buying a residential property (dwelling) is the most important transaction during their lifetime. Residential properties represent the most significant component of households’ expenses and, at the same time, their most valuable assets. The Residential Property Prices Indices (RPPIs) are index numbers measuring the rate at which the prices of residential properties are changing over time. RPPIs are key statistics not only for citizens and households across the world, but also for economic and monetary policy makers. Among their professional uses, they serve, for example, to monitor macroeconomic imbalances and risk exposure of the financial sector. This Handbook provides, for the first time, comprehensive guidelines for the compilation of RPPIs and explains in depth the methods and best practices used to calculate an RPPI. It also examines the underlying economic and statistical concepts and defines the principles guiding the methodological and practical choices for the compilation of the indices. The Handbook primarily addresses official statisticians in charge of producing residential property price indices; at the same time, it addresses the overall requirement on RPPIs by providing a harmonised methodological and practical framework to all parties interested in the compilation of such indices. The RPPIs Handbook has been written by leading academics in index number theory and by recognised experts in RPPIs compilation. Its development has been coordinated by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, with the collaboration of the International Labour Organization (ILO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the World Bank.