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Ján Klacso, Eugen Tereanu, Marco Forletta, and Mr. Marco Gross
We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper evaluates corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India. The analysis shows that while corporate sector risks have subsided, debt repayment capacity remains strained, and high leverage continues to weigh on corporate resilience, which may pose further risks to banks’ asset quality. Public sector banks have stepped up recognition of nonperforming assets, but their debt recovery capacity remains weak. Simulations suggest that potential recapitalization needs, at current provisioning levels, should have a modest fiscal impact.
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
The past two decades have seen a decline in labor's share of national income in several industrial countries. This paper analyzes the role of three factors in explaining movements in labor's share--factor-biased technological progress, openness to trade, and changes in employment protection--using a panel of 18 industrial countries over 1960-2000. Since most studies suggest that globalization and rapid technological progress (associated with accelerated information technology development) began in the mid-1980s, the sample is split in 1985 into preglobalization/pre-IT revolution and postglobalization/post-IT revolution eras. The results suggest that the decline in labor's share during the past few decades in the OECD member countries may have been largely an equilibrium, rather than a cyclical, phenomenon, as the distribution of national income between labor and capital adjusted to capital-augmenting technological progress and a more globalized world economy.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
The paper investigates the relationship between labor taxation and unemployment in Sweden by estimating a labor market model that includes a wage-setting locus and labor demand and supply relationships. The study simulates the effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the payroll tax and in total tax rates. The increase in the payroll tax pushes up labor costs by about ½ percent over a 5–10 year time horizon. Hours worked fall by 0.5 percent and the unemployment rate rises by 0.3 percentage point. The increase in total tax rates generates a similar result. Therefore, it appears that increases in taxes have adversely affected employment and unemployment in Sweden.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper examines factors affecting saving, policy tools, and tax reform. The literature on factors affecting saving and capital formation in industrialized countries is reviewed, and measurement problems are examined. The effect on the saving rate of real rates of return, income redistribution, allocation of saving between corporations and individuals, growth of public and private pension plans, tax incentives, the bequest motive, energy prices, and inflation is considered. The limited tools available to policymakers to affect savings are discussed.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
It is argued in this paper that, since economic welfare is influenced by the payments objectives pursued by countries, economists should explore the objectives that are indicated as being appropriate by welfare economics, rather than accepting objectives that have been arbitrarily specified and restricting their analysis to the question of how those objectives can be achieved. The concept of payments objectives involves targets for both the change in reserves and the structure of the balance of payments. The paper assumes that the private sector supplies the optimal quantity of stabilizing speculation, so that there is no need for reserves to change, and the problem is solely that of determining the optimal capital flow. This permits a discussion of the sources of welfare gain from capital flows, the qualifications to the classical prescription of free capital flows, and the case for a code of conduct to limit countries' freedom to restrict capital movements. It also implies that in the long run any maldistribution of reserves should be corrected by adjusting the current account rather than by borrowing reserves or manipulating the capital account.