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Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
Mexico has had one of the highest death tolls from Covid-19 and among the largest declines in output compared to peers. This paper utilizes data on Mexico’s thirty-two states to better understand the relationship between health and economic outcomes. For instance, did the states with worse pandemic outcomes suffer more economically? What state-level characteristics impacted health and economic outcomes? Among the findings are: individual traits such as age and certain pre-existing conditions were associated with higher illness and fatality risks. States with higher initial health expenditure and capacity on average had a lower case fatality rate. The economic fallout was widespread well beyond the direct impact of the pandemic. Tourism-heavy states were particularly badly affected, while states with larger exposures to manufacturing exports performed better. These findings support the case for adequate health spending, fiscal lifelines for hard-hit workers and sectors, and further integration into global value chains to bolster economic outcomes and resilience.
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, Ms. Keiko Honjo, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
Mexico’s fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities’ desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, risks a more severe recession and a weaker economic recovery, with further costs in the future. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront—including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets—would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline.
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Marco A Espinosa-Vega, and Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Latin America: An End to Boom and Bust? covers prospects in that region, which has managed to sustain a decade of prosperity after a history of boom and bust cycles. In our cover story, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, says Latin America has the potential to become an increasingly important global player. But boosting productivity and competitiveness remain key policy challenges and the fruits of success must be more broadly shared. Other articles on our cover theme look at the prospects for Brazil, inequality in Latin America, and how to raise productivity. Turning from Latin America, we interview former IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus, former IMF MD and now head of a group of luminaries tasked with generating ideas on how to make the global monetary system more stable in the wake of the world financial crisis. This issue of F&D also features articles on financial market cycles, public investment in infrastructure, whether to worry about inflation or deflation, democracy and liberalization, how to manage health care spending, and rising food prices. People in Economics profiles growth guru Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Prize in economics. Our regular Back to Basics feature explains financial services. Data Spotlight looks at how access to financial services is growing in developing countries; and Picture This highlights the IMF's new database of public debt since 1880.
International Monetary Fund
Mexico’s growth process in trend and cyclical factors, with implications for policy decisions, is discussed. Mexico’s trade integration has been important for growth. But the high export growth experienced has been followed by a more muted performance. Reforms to improve productivity are important to sustain export dynamism. Fiscal credibility, underpinned by prudent fiscal management and a strong fiscal framework, permitted a countercyclical fiscal response during the global crisis. However, Mexico faces significant long-term fiscal challenges, and addressing effectively such fiscal challenge would require early action.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
"Latin America: An End to Boom and Bust?" covers prospects in that region, which has managed to sustain a decade of prosperity after a history of boom and bust cycles. In our cover story, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, says Latin America has the potential to become an increasingly important global player. But boosting productivity and competitiveness remain key policy challenges and the fruits of success must be more broadly shared. Other articles on our cover theme look at the prospects for Brazil, inequality in Latin America, and how to raise productivity. Turning from Latin America, we interview former IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus, former IMF MD and now head of a group of luminaries tasked with generating ideas on how to make the global monetary system more stable in the wake of the world financial crisis. This issue of F&D also features articles on financial market cycles, public investment in infrastructure, whether to worry about inflation or deflation, democracy and liberalization, how to manage health care spending, and rising food prices. People in Economics profiles growth guru Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Prize in economics. Our regular Back to Basics feature explains financial services. Data Spotlight looks at how access to financial services is growing in developing countries; and Picture This highlights the IMF's new database of public debt since 1880.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
"Latin America: An End to Boom and Bust?" covers prospects in that region, which has managed to sustain a decade of prosperity after a history of boom and bust cycles. In our cover story, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, says Latin America has the potential to become an increasingly important global player. But boosting productivity and competitiveness remain key policy challenges and the fruits of success must be more broadly shared. Other articles on our cover theme look at the prospects for Brazil, inequality in Latin America, and how to raise productivity. Turning from Latin America, we interview former IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus, former IMF MD and now head of a group of luminaries tasked with generating ideas on how to make the global monetary system more stable in the wake of the world financial crisis. This issue of F&D also features articles on financial market cycles, public investment in infrastructure, whether to worry about inflation or deflation, democracy and liberalization, how to manage health care spending, and rising food prices. People in Economics profiles growth guru Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Prize in economics. Our regular Back to Basics feature explains financial services. Data Spotlight looks at how access to financial services is growing in developing countries; and Picture This highlights the IMF's new database of public debt since 1880.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Ce numéro intitulé « Amérique latine : une nouvelle ère de stabilité? » décrit les perspectives économiques de cette région, qui a connu dix ans de prospérité, après une longue période de cycles en dents de scie. L’article de fond, rédigé par Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Directeur du Département Hémisphère occidental du FMI, présente les atouts que possède l’Amérique latine pour jouer un rôle de plus en plus important dans le monde. Il lui reste cependant à surmonter les deux grands défis de la productivité et de la compétitivité, et à mieux répartir les fruits de la réussite économique. D’autres articles examinent en particulier les perspectives du Brésil, les inégalités en Amérique latine et les moyens d’accroître la productivité. Par ailleurs, nous présentons un entretien avec Michel Camdessus, ancien Directeur général du FMI, qui préside aujourd’hui un groupe d’éminentes personnalités chargé de proposer des idées pour rendre le système monétaire international plus stable, au lendemain de la crise financière mondiale. Ce numéro de F&D propose également des articles sur les cycles des marchés financiers, les investissements publics dans les infrastructures, les craintes que peuvent inspirer l’inflation ou la déflation, les liens entre démocratie et libéralisation, la façon de gérer au mieux les dépenses de santé et la hausse des prix alimentaires. À la rubrique « Paroles d’économistes », on trouvera un portrait du gourou de la croissance Robert Solow, lauréat du Prix Nobel en 1987. Parmi nos rubriques habituelles, « L’ABC de l’économie » traite des services financiers, « Gros plan » explique comment l’accès aux services financiers s’améliore dans les pays en développement et « Pleins feux » présente la nouvelle base de données du FMI sur l’histoire de la dette publique depuis 1880.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En “América Latina: ¿Fin de los ciclos de auge y caída?” se abordan las perspectivas de esta región, que ha gozado de una década de prosperidad después de una historia de ciclos de auge y caída de la economía. En nuestro artículo principal, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director del Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental del FMI, señala que América Latina tiene el potencial para adquirir mayor protagonismo económico mundial. Pero incrementar la productividad y la competitividad sigue siendo uno de los desafíos fundamentales, y es necesario que los frutos del éxito se repartan con criterio más amplio entre todos los sectores. En otros artículos se examinan las perspectivas de Brasil, la desigualdad en América Latina y cómo aumentar la productividad. Además de los artículos sobre América Latina, entrevistamos al ex Director Gerente del FMI Michel Camdessus, quién dirigió al grupo de eminentes expertos encargados de generar ideas para lograr que el sistema monetario internacional sea más seguro después de la crisis financiera mundial. En esta edición de F&D también se incluyen artículos en los que se analizan los ciclos de los mercados financieros; la inversión pública en infraestructura; la preocupación por la inflación o la deflación; la democracia y la liberalización; cómo gestionar el gasto en atención de la salud, y el incremento de los precios de los alimentos. En “Gente del mundo de la economía” trazamos una semblanza del gurú del crecimiento, Robert Solow, galardonado con el Premio Nóbel de Economía en 1987. En nuestra sección habitual “Vuelta a lo esencial” se explican los servicios financieros. En “Un vistazo a los datos” se presentan cifras sobre la expansión de los servicios financieros en los países en desarrollo, y en “Bajo la lupa” se destaca la nueva base de datos del FMI con información sobre la deuda pública desde 1880.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Latin America: An End to Boom and Bust? covers prospects in that region, which has managed to sustain a decade of prosperity after a history of boom and bust cycles. In our cover story, Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, says Latin America has the potential to become an increasingly important global player. But boosting productivity and competitiveness remain key policy challenges and the fruits of success must be more broadly shared. Other articles on our cover theme look at the prospects for Brazil, inequality in Latin America, and how to raise productivity. Turning from Latin America, we interview former IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus, former IMF MD and now head of a group of luminaries tasked with generating ideas on how to make the global monetary system more stable in the wake of the world financial crisis. This issue of F&D also features articles on financial market cycles, public investment in infrastructure, whether to worry about inflation or deflation, democracy and liberalization, how to manage health care spending, and rising food prices. People in Economics profiles growth guru Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel Prize in economics. Our regular Back to Basics feature explains financial services. Data Spotlight looks at how access to financial services is growing in developing countries; and Picture This highlights the IMF's new database of public debt since 1880.