Mr. Guillermo Calvo and Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont
This paper reviews the main policy and analytical issues related to currency substitution in developing countries. The paper discusses, first, whether currency substitution should be encouraged or not; second, how the presence of currency substitution affects the choice of nominal anchors in inflation stabilization programs; third, the effects of changes in the rate of growth of the money supply on the real exchange rate; fourth, the interaction between inflationary finance and currency substitution; and, finally, issues related to the empirical verification of the currency substitution hypothesis.
Mr. Jose De Gregorio, Mr. Peter Wickham, Patricio Arrau, and Ms. Carmen Reinhart
Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. We estimate money demand for ten developing countries employing various proxies for the innovation process and provide an assessment of the relative importance of this variable. We find that financial innovation plays an important role in determining money demand and its fluctuations, and that the importance of this role increases with the rate of inflation.
The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically the new theory of exchange rate targeting. The theory formulates an expectations induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental subject to random shocks and target zone constraints. By using monthly data for a representative small-open economy (Israel in the 1980s) the empirical analysis identifies the special roled played by policy and market fundamentals in the behavior of the exchange rate.