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Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky and Julian Schumacher
Sovereign debt restructurings are perceived as inflicting large losses to bondholders. However, many bonds feature high coupons and often exhibit strong post-crisis recoveries. To account for these aspects, we analyze the long-term returns of sovereign bonds during 32 crises since 1998, taking into account losses from bond exchanges as well as profits before and after such events. We show that the average excess return over risk-free rates in crises with debt restructuring is not significantly lower than the return on bonds in crises without restructuring. Returns differ considerably depending on the investment strategy: Investors who sell during crises fare much worse than buy-and-hold investors or investors entering the market upon signs of distress
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that after three years of robust expansion, the economy of the Dominican Republic moderated to close to its potential level. Economic activity is estimated to have expanded by 4.6 percent in 2017, following above-potential growth of 7.1 percent on average during 2014–16. The growth moderation was concentrated in the first three quarters of 2017. The economic outlook remains positive. The monetary easing in mid-2017 is expected to support a continued recovery in economic activity in 2018. Lower lending rates and stronger credit growth following the easing, combined with higher real wages and employment, are expected to continue to support domestic demand.
Ms. Svetlana Cerovic and Jose Saboin
This paper examines the financial position of the key sectors of the Dominican Republic. It contributes to macroeconomic surveillance by identifying financial interlinkages and vulnerabilities through the balance sheet approach. The balance sheet of the economy has been weakening, particularly in foreign currency, due to persistent fiscal deficits. Risks arising from weaker foreign currency position, however, seem to be mitigated by long-term maturities on government debt and increasing accumulation of foreign currency assets. Given the strong links of the rest of the economy with the public sector, network analysis suggests that while the financial position of the other sectors of the economy is stronger, they could be adversely affected in an external stress scenario. Exposures to public sector are particularly pronounced in the domestic financial system (directly) and households (indirectly, through pension funds).

Abstract

La eficiencia, la eficacia y la transparencia de la gestión financiera pública en América Latina son fundamentales para la supervisión de los recursos públicos, la estabilidad fiscal y el desarrollo económico sostenible. En años recientes, los países de América Latina han adoptado reformas en la gestión financiera pública y han logrado muchos avances importantes; sin embargo, todavía existen retos. Este libro reúne el conocimiento y las experiencias del personal técnico del FMI y el BID y de representantes de 16 Gobiernos de la región para documentar estas reformas, y examina las experiencias y las lecciones aprendidas. Es un recurso valioso para quienes se ocupan de estos temas en la gestión financiera pública.

Abstract

In recent years, the countries of Latin America have embraced reforms in public financial management and have made many important advances—however, many challenges remain. This book brings together IMF and IDB staff and representatives from 16 governments in the region to document these reforms, and to examine the experiences and lessons learned. It is a valuable resource for those looking at issues in public financial management.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
This paper discusses St. Kitts and Nevis’ Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-by Arrangement. The program focused on (1) an ambitious fiscal consolidation, (2) a comprehensive debt restructuring, and (3) a further strengthening of the financial sector. These goals aimed to address the key issues behind the debt crisis, and the potential financial sector outcomes of the restructuring. The program had many successes. The debt reduction was one of the largest in recent times, the headline fiscal and current account balances improved substantially, important tax and public financial management reforms were enacted, and sovereign risk was removed from the banks. Robust growth also resumed.