The overall fiscal position improved and the reduction in domestic arrears was triple the program target. The direct impact of the global financial crisis on Djibouti has been limited. The financial system has not been affected by the global crisis, and capital adequacy has improved slightly despite increased competition. GDP growth remained strong in 2008, and inflation decelerated during the fourth quarter. The risk of external debt distress remains high. Banks remain profitable and have not been affected by the global financial crisis.
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
The paper examines fiscal sustainability issues for the case of Eritrea but has wider implications for addressing fiscal and debt sustainability. It begins with a formal definition and explanation of analytical sustainability indicators, followed by an assessment of the causes of fiscal deficits and their impact on the usual indicators of fiscal and external debt sustainability. The paper then goes beyond the usual analytical indicators by attempting to identify how and through which channels fiscal and other economic policies have affected the behavior of endogenous variables that in one way or another influence sustainability.
This paper assesses Ethiopia’s 2002 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Performance under the first annual PRGF-supported program was good, and the second annual program remains on track. All the quantitative and structural performance criteria and benchmarks for December 2001 and March 2002 were met, with the exception of the revised regulation for the provisioning by banks for nonperforming loans, which was adopted, but was not fully in line with international best practice, as had been envisaged.
This paper assesses Ethiopia’s Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Requests for Augmentation of Access and for Waiver of Performance Criterion, and Second Annual Program. Performance under the first annual PRGF-supported program was satisfactory in the context of Ethiopia’s steady progress toward peace with Eritrea. All quantitative and structural performance criteria through October 2001 were observed, with the exception of the adjusted performance criterion on the net domestic assets of the National Bank of Ethiopia, for which the authorities request a waiver.
This Selected Issues paper describes economic developments in Eritrea during the 1990s. The paper highlights that since the early 1990s, the Eritrean economy has recovered considerably, thanks to the rebuilding of the infrastructure and the improved availability of essential imports following major trade reforms in 1994. During 1993–96, real GDP growth averaged about 4 percent annually, ahead of the estimated population growth rate of about 3 percent. However, annual growth was erratic over the period mainly because of the drought conditions in 1993 and 1995, whereas the weather was exceptionally favorable in 1994.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.