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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper develops a new calibrated model of the Singapore economy, the Singapore Global Policy MODel (SGPMOD), and uses it to conduct a variety of policy experiments focused on the conduct of monetary policy. The SGPMOD is used to illustrate the role of the monetary policy responses of Singapore’s monetary authority following a variety of domestic and external shocks. It is suggested that monetary policy can do little to prevent the trough in real GDP in late 2016, but it can definitely contribute to a speedier recovery. In the near term, there is general global turbulence in exchange rate markets, exacerbating the negative effects from Singapore’s transmission mechanism and its reliance on the uncovered interest parity condition.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy frameworks of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 economies, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies. Monetary policy frameworks of the ASEAN-5 economies have on the whole performed well since the crisis, delivering both price and financial stability during a period of significant domestic and regional transformation and global macroeconomic and financial turmoil. Not surprisingly, therefore, successful outcomes in most cases entailed significant changes to operating frameworks and refinement of policy objectives.
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Mr. Ricardo Correa, Elisabetta Fiorentino, and Esther Segalla
This paper documents the features of a new database that focuses on changes in the intensity in the usage of several widely used prudential tools, taking into account both macro-prudential and micro-prudential objectives. The database coverage is broad, spanning 64 countries, and with quarterly data for the period 2000Q1 through 2014Q4. The five types of prudential instruments in the database are: capital buffers, interbank exposure limits, concentration limits, loan to value (LTV) ratio limits, and reserve requirements. A total of nine prudential tools are constructed since some useful further decompositions are presented, with capital buffers divided into four subindices: general capital requirements, real state credit specific capital buffers, consumer credit specific capital buffers, and other specific capital buffers; and with reserve requirements divided into two sub-indices: domestic currency capital requirements and foreign currency capital requirements. While general capital requirements have the most changes from the cross-country perspective, LTV ratio limits and reserve requirements have the largest number of tightening and loosening episodes. We also analyze the instruments’ usage in relation to the evolution of key variables such as credit, policy rates, and house prices, finding substantial differences in the patterns of loosening or tightening of instruments in relation to business and financial cycles.
International Monetary Fund
Hong Kong, like other city financial centers, has a high private saving rate. This paper seeks to understand what the principal drivers of saving and investment in financial centers are. Cyclical frequency changes affecting international financial and trade linkages are key drivers of saving and investment fluctuations in Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a long-established track-record as Asia’s premier center for cross-border financial transactions. Its preeminence derives from its special link with Mainland China, with respect to foreign direct investment flows.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper describes the issue of corruption around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the causes, consequences, and scope of corruption, and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from the reform of the state. If certain reforms are not made, corruption is likely to continue to be a problem regardless of actions directly aimed at curtailing it.
Ms. Kate Phylaktis
This paper investigates the extent to which financial markets in the Pacific Basin Region have become more integrated, by analyzing the comovements of real interest rates. The paper uses cointegration and error correction models and draws inferences on the degree of capital market integration by looking at the speed of adjustment of real interest rates following a shock. The results show that there has been an increase in capital market integration with both U.S. and Japan during the 1980s. Japan has not, however, overtaken U.S. in dominating the financial markets of these countries, except possibly in the case of Malaysia. Capital market integration is found to be greater in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan Province of China. On the other hand, Japan is the least integrated country with the United States.