International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Macrofinancial risks stem from the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks to tourism and real estate investment, exposure to frequent and severe hurricanes, and a small and illiquid real estate market. Stress tests reveal the overall banking system is resilient to a range of adverse scenarios given large aggregate capital and liquidity buffers. Some domestic banks and the two largest credit unions are more vulnerable to asset quality shocks and tail risk conditions. Asset quality and profitability are key determinants of financial institutions’ resilience to adverse shocks. Liquidity, market, sovereign and financial contagion risks are low. The offshore banking sector is not a source of traditional banking risks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Bahamas’ real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.3 percent in 2017. Economic activity has been supported by the completion of Baha Mar, new foreign direct investment-financed projects, and post-hurricane reconstruction activity. However, air tourist arrivals declined 4 percent in 2017, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Matthew on hotel infrastructure in the Grand Bahama Island. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2.25 percent in 2019 on the back of stronger growth in the United States; the phased opening of Baha Mar; and a pickup in foreign direct investment. Medium-term growth is projected to remain at 1.5 percent, reflecting significant structural impediments.
This paper presents background on Caribbean small states as context for the main paper, “Macroeconomic Issues in Small States and Implications for Fund Engagement.” It draws on recent analytical work presented at a conference for policy makers in September 2012, in Trinidad and Tobago. Caribbean small states, while sharing many features of other small states (size-related macroeconomic vulnerabilities, lack of economies of scale, and capacity constraints) have specific characteristics which merit attention
This Selected Issues paper for The Bahamas reports that the largest portion of tourism expenditure in The Bahamas comes from stayover visitors, and total tourism spending has been stagnant. The Bahamas is a small open economy highly dependent on tourism and the offshore financial sector. Private consumption expenditure in the country or countries of origin is the most important determinant of tourism in The Bahamas.