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Mr. Robin Koepke and Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The April 2014 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite much progress, the global financial system remains in a transitional period with stability conditions far from normal. Advanced and emerging market economies alike need to make a successful shift from liquidity- to growth-driven markets, which will require a number of elements, including a normalization of U.S. monetary policy; financial rebalancing in emerging markets; further progress in the euro area integration; and continued implementation of “Abenomics” in Japan. This report also examines how changes in the investor base and financial deepening affect emerging market economies as well as looks at the issue of banks considered too important to fail, providing new estimates of the implicit funding subsidy these banks receive.

Mr. Abhisek Banerjee and Mr. Manmohan Singh
The paper finds significant deviations between short-term emerging market real interest rates and world real interest rates primarily due to the inflationary expectations of the local investor base. We test for long-run real interest convergence in emerging markets using a time varying panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran to capture the improved macro-economic fundamentals since early 1990s. We also estimate the speed of convergence in the presence of a shock. The paper suggests that real interest rates in the emerging markets show some convergence in the long run but real interest parity does not hold. Our results also find that the speed of adjustment of real rates to a shock is estimated to differ significantly across the emerging markets. Measured by their half-life, some emerging markets in Asia, E.Europe and S.Africa, where real interest rates are generally low, take much longer to adjust than where real interest rates are generally high (Latin America, Turkey). From a policy perspective, encouraging foreign investors to take direct exposure at the short end of the local debt market could lower the real interest rates in some emerging markets.
International Monetary Fund
The safeguards assessments policy was introduced in March 2000 to provide reasonable assurance that central banks have adequate financial control systems in place to manage their resources and Fund disbursements. The safeguards policy’s main objective is to minimize the possibility of misreporting or misuse of Fund resources associated with the Fund’s lending activities. Safeguards assessments apply to all member countries that have a Fund arrangement.
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Raghuram Rajan, and Ms. Enrica Detragiache
Banking crises are usually followed by a decline in credit and growth. Is this because crises tend to take place during economic downturns, or do banking sector problems have independent negative effects on the economy? To answer this question we examine industrial sectors with differing needs for financing. If banking crises have an exogenous detrimental effect on real activity, then sectors more dependent on external finance should perform relatively worse during banking crises. The evidence in this paper supports this view. Additional support comes from the fact that sectors that predominantly have small firms, and thus are typically bank-dependent, also perform relatively worse during banking crises. The differential effects across sectors are stronger in developing countries, in countries with less access to foreign finance, and where banking crises have been more severe.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The IMF’s Executive Board on May 15 approved an augmentation of Turkey’s three-year Stand-By Arrangement by SDR 6.4 billion (about $8 billion), bringing the total to SDR 15 billion (about $19 billion). The full text of Press Release 01/23, including details of Turkey’s economic program, is available on the IMF’s website (www.imf.org).
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The enhancement of the IMF’s structural adjustment facility is discussed. In its April 1987 meeting, the IMF’s Interim Committee highlighted the plight of low-income countries, and outlined a strategy for their recovery. It emphasized that it is crucial for these countries to implement reforms that to be fully effective, will need to be accompanied by the timely provision of additional financing on appropriate concessional terms to support these reforms. The Committee also called upon creditor governments to grant exceptional relief with respect to official credits in highly indebted low-income countries.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The role of exchange rate policy in economic adjustment has been widely studied and is the subject of numerous theoretical and empirical papers produced in the Fund and elsewhere.

Mr. Clive S. Gray, R. P. Short, and Mr. Robert H. Floyd

Abstract

This volume, written by Robert H. Floyd, Clive S. Gray, and R.P. Short, contains three papers dealing with various aspects of the public enterprise sector and the impact that these may have on macroeconomic analysis.