The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
Cheikh A. Gueye, Asithandile Mbelu, and Mr. Amadou N Sy
This paper studies the impact of declining oil prices on banks in sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries. Results indicate that banks respond differently to an oil shock depending on their ownership: (i) domestic banks are the most adversely impacted and experience a deterioration in asset quality and liquidity; (ii) foreign-owned banks are the most resilient as they are able to improve asset quality and attract deposits but at the same time, they decelerate credit growth; in contrast, (iii) Pan-African Banks help stabilize overall credit but large banks in that segment experience reduced asset quality. These differentiated results suggest a tradeoff between maintaining credit growth and safeguarding financial stability in an oil slump which could be addressed by both micro- and macroprudential policies.
Angola has made significant progress toward economic stabilization. Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), the government’s key fiscal anchor is the non-oil primary fiscal deficit (NOPD), and the revised 2010 budget is determined to avoid any increase in the non-oil primary deficit. Policy discussions focused on the fiscal stance for the remainder of 2010, and in 2011, the resolution framework for clearing domestic arrears payment, reforming the tax system, strengthening the asset-liability management capacity, and improving the tools for monetary management.
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Angola. The paper reveals that the authorities’ reforms are beginning to bear fruit in terms of achieving key program goals. The heavy foreign exchange market pressures that were evident at the program negotiations stage (September 2009) have eased. The reintroduction of the foreign exchange auction system has led to a significant and orderly adjustment in the official rate, and together with a modest appreciation of the parallel rate, has narrowed the spread between the two markets.